Part 2: The current online market
according to an earlier estimate
that puts the overall size at
SEK5.5bn. This would be a top end
estimate for market share. or SEK903m. Again, using the
SEK5.5bn market estimate, this
would suggest Betsson is worth
around 16% of the market.
Betsson
Kindred’s great listed rival is
likewise a stalwart of the Swedish
grey market and it will certainly
be pushing for market leadership
in the regulated space. Again,
as with Kindred, we have made
an assumption with regard to
Betsson’s Swedish revenues
that these represent circa 40%
of its declared Nordic revenues, LeoVegas
LeoVegas has been perhaps the
most successful challenger brand
in Sweden and over the course of
the past five years or more has
fast established itself as a leading
mobile-first casino operator (and
latterly sportsbook). In its 2017
quarterly results statements the
company moved to break out its
revenues from Sweden, including
its growth rate. From these we
can see it earned €78.8m (circa
SEK818m) in the country, giving it
an estimated 14.5% market share.
The company is clearly confident
about its prospects — at the
time of writing, it had announced
new long-term targets for overall
revenues to hit €600m by 2020,
implying substantial market share
gains. In the first quarter of 2018,
Swedish revenues hit €20.1m or
circa SEK209m, suggesting it is
very much on track, particularly
given the likelihood of increased
top-line growth in Sweden (albeit
Table 2: LeoVegas Sweden revenues 2017
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017
% of GGR from Sweden 40.1 36.6 37.1 33.5 36.8
Total GGR (€m) 43.7 49.2 55.2 67.9 216
Sweden GGR (€m) 17.5 18.0 20.5 22.7 78.8
Sweden growth rate (%) 27.5 22.7 16.7 35.3 21.4
2017 SEK calculation 818
Est. Swedish market share (%) 14.5
Source: Company reports, Market Monitor market share estimates
Table 3: Mr Green Nordic revenues
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Nordic revenue (SEKm) 313 346 364 354 390
Nordic growth (%) 27 10.4 5.4 -2.7 10.2
125.2 138.4 145.6 141.6 156
Swedish est. revenues (SEKm)
Est. Swedish market share (%)
Source: Company reports, Market Monitor estimates
12
Sweden: The transition to regulation in one of Europe’s most advanced digital markets
3