Part 2 : The current online market
Add in the SEK101m from poker and the estimated online total rises to SEK1.09bn , or circa € 105m .
Svenska Spel gave some clues as to the size of the grey market in 2017 when it suggesting its own market share was worth 25 % of the total regulated and unregulated market :
As can be seen , when matching our own estimates for Svenska Spel online with its estimates for the size of the grey market , it would suggest the latter is five times as big at SEK5.5bn (€ 534m ).
If we put our online Svenska Spel estimate together with the company ’ s own estimates for the unregulated market , we get to a total of circa SEK6.6bn in 2017 . ( See Chart 1 ).
The grey market leaders The figure is debatable but at least it gives an indication of the quantum of the size of the grey market in relation to the existing regulated online market . Away from the big names , analysis of Swedish-facing affiliate sites comes up with a long tail reaching into the hundreds of likely Swedishfacing sites .
Still , the market is dominated by the familiar names : Kindred ( with Unibet and Maria Bingo ), the multiple brands of Betsson , LeoVegas and Mr Green from the ‘ home ’ team ( albeit via Malta ); and the likes of Jackpotjoy , PokerStars and bet365 from the ‘ away ’ team . Few give any specific details regarding their Swedish revenues , with LeoVegas and Jackpotjoy being the only exceptions here . The
Chart 1 : Svenska Spel Online vs . the unregulated market 2017 ( SEKbn )
16.00 %
rest will often give some indication of Nordic revenues , particularly Kindred and Betsson , and from that a calculation has to be made of what part of that emanates from Swedish-based players .
As per previous investigations of the various Scandinavian markets , it should be noted that in order to unpeel any given Nordic revenues figure below , we have opted for a blanket assumption of a 40 % Sweden , 40 % Norway , 10 % Denmark and 10 % Finland split . Unless otherwise stated , this is how we get to our market share estimates . This might well underestimate the Swedish component of any given operator , but it does at least offer a guide around which debates can occur over any specific company .
LeoVegas and Jackpotjoy give specific Swedish revenues ( either in percentage terms or actual ) and this helps anchor our estimates . The other anchor figure used for the
Svenska Spel Source : Swedish report / CCM estimates
84.00 %
Unregulated
grey market estimate is that given by Svenska Spel above .
Market share pointers Kindred Much of the excitement around the Swedish online market as is has been provided by newcomers to the market , somewhat overshadowing the long-standing Kindred brands Unibet and Maria Bingo . But the combined brands mean Kindred is still likely to emerge as the top dog in the newly regulated space , particularly given its sports betting capabilities . As with above , we have estimated that Sweden likely accounts for 40 % of Kindred ’ s disclosed Nordic revenues , or circa SEK1.4bn , of which we estimate circa SEK500m is sports betting and around SEK900m is casino , poker and bingo .
According to our calculations this would give Kindred a 25 % share of the unregulated market
Sweden : The transition to regulation in one of Europe ’ s most advanced digital markets 11