Part 4: The future
Part 4:
The future
With new licensees
enter the fray, we look
how the market is likely
to develop from here
and its potential to
grow should the tax
regime be liberalised
Gaining traction
It might be a reasonably disputed
conclusion, but the Portuguese
market is displaying some signs of
life, both in terms of revenues and
in the potential for new licensees.
Admittedly, in the case of the latter
it comes mainly from the launch
of Jogos Santa Casa’s Placard.pt
offering and hardly represents a
leap forward.
Likewise, the growth seen in the
past year or more has been limited
and prone to quarterly setbacks.
But still, it looks highly likely the
market will certainly see some
growth on 2017.
Using the average year-on-year
growth rate from the past four
quarters of 27.7% as a guide – and
being slightly more conservative
by rounding down to 25% — this
Table 8: Market estimates
(@ 25% CAGR)
Year
2017 (a)
GGR estimates
€122.5m
2018 €153m
2019 €191m
2020 €239m
Source: Report estimates
20
report’s estimate is that the
market could grow to about
€230m-€240m by 2020.
Obviously these estimates
are open to question. The last
four quarters include a number
of variables – the occurrence of
the football World Cup, some
well-known new entrants – which
won’t be repeated every year. It
is possible the market might stall.
One suggestion is that the recent
growth represents a degree of
offshore clawback and this might
not continue in the future.
Domingues, country manager
for Betclic, remains pessimistic and
suggests that any new entrants will
more likely cannibalise than expand
the market. “It’s unlikely (new
entrants will expand the market),”
he says. “The market is growing
slowly and the more companies
there are, it means that the
market will be divided into more
operators.”
But to set against these
negatives are some positive drivers
that might push further growth.
“Operators must also keep in mind
that casino taxes are relatively low
— IEJO rate on games of chance
is initially only 15% on GGR,” says
Almeida from eGaming Services.
“This means operators should
not think only about exploring
Portugal: The challenges and potential in one of Europe’s most controversial markets