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Part 1: Setting the scene Brazilian gaming regulation: a short history • 1940s Most forms of gambling prohibited, with casinos and bingo halls shutdown • 1961 Federal bank Caixa granted a monopoly to run lottery games •  1990s ‘Zico’ (1993) and ‘Pele’ (1998) laws introduced to allow state authorisation of land-based bingo halls and electronic gaming machines • 2000s Country’s bingo sector shut down following Presidential (2004) and Supreme Court (2007) decisions •  Dec 2018 President signs PM 846 into law, authorising sports betting •  Feb 2019 Bill introduced to authorise casinos in integrated resorts Source: Morgan Stanley Andre Gelfi: “Based on the liberal approach of the current government office I personally expect an unlimited number of licences, founded on a set of restrictive regulatory requirements.” Alberto Alfieri, chief operating officer at bet.pt owner BetCorporate, currently developing Brazil-facing brand Vivagol, adds: “I really hope for an open amount of licensees, otherwise there will be issues for the market from the beginning, with unfair competition and shadowy criteria for accepting certain licensees over others.” “I believe that Brazilian authorities and legislators understand this and know that they can’t go wrong if they keep this [process] open and transparent.” Another possibility, however, is for the government to opt for a limited number of licensees, likely accompanied by some upfront capex spend, according to Morgan Stanley. Maximiliano De Muro, until recently the regional manager in Latin America for Mr Green, says this would give authorities the option of widening licensing at a later date. “The government would like to see how it goes first,” he explains. The decision over the route taken will emerge next year, according to Marcelo Munhoz da Rocha, a gaming consultant with BetConsult in Brazil. “What we have been hearing is that the regulation for sports betting [to] be finished by the end of 2019, and that the initial processes of the licence granting shall happen in early 2020,” he says. Land-based and online? It has also yet to be determined whether the legislation will encompass both retail and online within its purview and also whether it might be implemented on a regional basis. We do, however, know the tax structure. According to Morgan Stanley, as it stands online operators would be subject to a minimum payout of 89% with gross win capped at 8% and the remaining 3% handle to be remitted as tax. However, it notes that this could change, suggesting that a mid-20% tax rate has been mooted. Dawn of the Bolsonaro era Aside from issues around the format and the forms of sports betting to be allowed, the other main imponderable is the extent to which the new Bolsonaro government will get involved in the process. His government is composed of a volatile mix of liberal, free-market minsters and advisers combined with deeply illiberal and conservative instincts at the top, including the President himself. The view on how the government will proceed is complicated by the arrest of former President Temer – the man who signed the sports betting bill into law – on corruption charges. Should the Bolsonaro BRAZIL The regulated opportunity in Latam’s largest market 7