Part 3: The online sports betting opportunity
Part 3: The online sports
betting opportunity
Both the failed bingo
experiment and current
estimates surrounding
illegal activity suggest
there is a huge appetite
among Brazilians
for more forms of
regulated gambling
Assuming this government does not
make the same mistakes as previous
administrations did with bingo
regulation – and it’s hard to see how
it could – then the scene is set for
online sports betting operators to
reap the rewards of new legislation.
First, though, we need to set the
parameters by looking at what the
estimates are from H2 Gambling
Capital for the size of the entire
offshore online market as it stands.
Simon Holliday, director at H2,
points out that regulated onshore
sports betting revenues have been
included in H2’s forecasts from
2021, hence the estimated figure for
2023 for regulated betting activities
would not be the market at maturity.
Still, the estimate of BRL2.28bn, or
£444m, represents a step change of
the estimated figure of BRL0.31bn
for 2018, which is made up mainly
of horse racing. It also represents an
improvement from the offshore total
gaming figure for 2018 of BRL0.5bn.
In order to best set out the
scenarios for what might happen
once sports betting is regulated, the
team at Morgan Stanley looked at
levels of gambling as a percentage
of GDP across various other
Table 1: H2 estimates for Brazilian
gaming spend (BRL bn)
Brazilian gaming spend
(BRL bn) 2013 2018 (e) 2023 (e)
Total gaming spend 6.49 9.53 12.52
Land 6.16 8.72 9.51
Interactive 0.34 0.81 3.01
% Interactive 5.2% 8.5% 24.1%
Betting 0.21 0.31 2.28
Gaming 0.17 0.24 0.32
Lottery 6.11 8.98 9.92
Onshore 0.04 0.31 2.46
Offshore 0.30 0.50 0.55
% Onshore 11.6% 37.9% 81.7%
Source: H2 Gambling Capital
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BRAZIL The regulated opportunity in Latam’s largest market