Part 2: The changing affiliate landscape
Chart 3: Catena Media NDCs Q116-Q318
Chart 4: Catena Media NDC YoY growth (%)
150
140K
129
120K
107
86
80K
64
60K
138194
0
21
20K 43
40K
100K
Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318
Source: Company
0
Q117
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q118
Q218
Q318
Source: Company
and how quality, not volume, was the key. Indeed,
the company made the point in its third-quarter
presentation that organic growth for the period
January-September this year stood at 17%.
This presumably answers part of Hellberg’s
question with regard to life post-M&A, although such
a growth rate is below the long-term average of
19%. It will be interesting to see whether the organic
growth rate for the second half is spoken about when
the full-year numbers are released early in 2019.
To €100m and beyond
Where the company can certainly expect to
see organic growth is in the US, where it has
a dominant position with regard to the online
gambling, and now sports-betting, affiliate markets
in New Jersey.
Catena Media bought its way into the US via
the acquisition of the PlayNJ assets in December
2016 and even if post-PASPA opportunities have
somewhat fallen into its lap, it is fair to say the
company isn’t going to pass up the chance to
The potential
(is there) for US
sports-betting to
go gangbusters
Michael Daly,
US general manager
capitalise on its good fortune.
Having subsequently bought PokerScout and
BonusSeeker.com, the company is now pinning
its hopes on seeing some organic growth from
its leading position with regard to key markets in
the US. In New Jersey, for instance, the company
estimates its brands account for over 70% of all
affiliate traffic.
As it stands, Catena has not yet released any
details on what that market dominance is worth in
revenues but at the Capital Markets Day presentation,
its US general manager for igaming, Michael Daly, said
that at the current run-rate revenues in the US were
growing at around the 20% mark. With more states
set to open up next year, that growth is likely to
accelerate. As Daly said, “The potential (is there) for
US sports-betting to go gangbusters.”
Daly explained that the strategy from here was
to focus on monetised, pre-monetised and build-
out sites across all the potential sports-betting
states. “We will build out our domain names and
site frameworks, plus we have global and national
brands that we will be bringing to the US, such as
AskGamblers.”
Such is the company’s confidence about its
“pole position” in the US that at the Capital Markets
Day the management spoke about the company’s
medium-term EBITDA target of €100m being
achievable without any further acquisitions.
“Because of the US, theoretically we don’t have
to do any acquisitions to get to €100m in EBITDA
by 2020,” said chief financial officer at the time Pia-
Lena Olofsson.
This gives a hint as to the US prospects. As of
the third quarter 2018, the adjusted EBITDA figure
Under pressure: Regulation and the evolution of affiliate marketing
15