iGB Affiliate 62 Apr/May | Page 45

THE NORDICS Figure 4: Cherry Gaming affiliate acquisitions PROPERTY DATE FEE + EARNOUT Game Lounge (51% share) January 2015 $3.4m Finnish affiliate network July 2015 $1.2m Moorgate Media December 2015 $4m Interclick August 2016 $1.5m UK/Germany JapaneseCasino.com December 2016 Unknown Japan or three times more profitable than many operators.” Meanwhile, Catena’s sole focus on digital marketing sets it apart from the likes of GIG and Cherry Gaming (see Figures 3 and 4), which have similarly been making acquisitions in the space but as businesses are also focused on other areas of the value chain. Superficially, Catena’s strategy bears similarities with XL Media, though as Andersson points out, the latter has diversified from the time of its 2014 float when it was almost wholly concentrated on the gaming sector. Definitely pursuing the same strategy are taking part of the game long term.” He says the valuation model looks at eight to 10 various parameters depending on the category. “Some of the parameters are SEO, size, content quality and history. Needless to say you need a deep understanding of SEO.” Robinson of RB Capital disagrees with Holmberg and Andersson. “In addition to their optimal cost structures, simple economic forces would suggest that the value of affiliates will rise as a result of increased demand,” he says. “The more savvy affiliates will recognise the scope for increased valuations and will work to maximise the value of their assets, “Many affiliates operate at very attractive margins of 60%, if not more. This is harder for the larger players to achieve” Ben Robinson, RB Capital as Catena, albeit not with the same listed share price rating, is RakeTech and its chief executive Michael Holmberg agrees that in time the market will likely consolidate down to a “handful of companies that will substantially grow in size”. “As on the operator side, there will be rapid growth by competitive newcomers, that will obtain market share and compete for traffic with the well-established larger companies,” he says. With €70m to spend, Holmberg says the company has already begun negotiations with – and is evaluating – around 20 leads. “We have an ambitious acquisition strategy and a dedicated team in place to follow leads and ensure we find as many suitable companies as possible,” he says. ... will lead to higher prices? But he insists, much like Andersson at Catena, that prices are not on the rise and says RakeTech has a “very clear view of the market and how to evaluate these assets”. “From a value perspective we don’t see any reason why prices should go up given that our competitors know how to do their math, which we assume they know if they thus increasing their overall chances of selling their businesses at a good price.” On this last point a related parameter is people and the key value they hold within these companies. Ihre points out that the most successful sites are driven by webmasters “spending 24-hours a day on this”. Interestingly, those very people’s actual value is virtually impossible to quantify. “Once they have left the building, the biggest asset has gone with them,” adds Ihre. Andersson disagrees, although the company’s prospectus when it floated in Stockholm did make the point that the number of highly-skilled professionals within the online casino SEO space was “very limited”. “We’re building brands,” he says, pointing to sites such as AskGamblers, Slotsia and SBAT, which runs sites such as SBAT.com, FootyAccumulators and AccaTracker. MARKET FOCUS Finland the value of the affiliate networks that are being acquired comes down to some simple metrics. “Assuming they are keeping their traffic scores, then yes these deals are worthwhile,” he says. “The key is buying good businesses and keeping the staff.” Where the consolidation will have an effect – in the long term – will be with the operators. Andersson portrays the affiliate acquisitions of GIG and Cherry as “nice- to-haves”, but Cotton points out that these businesses are hoping to control more of the supply chain. This is reflected in GIG’s recent results which showed that of the 36,100 new first- time depositors its affiliate arm Innovation Labs had referred in 2016, 19% were directed towards its own brands, which include Guts.com and Rizk.com. “Will other operators join the chase? Generally, they have gone the other way in terms of acquisitions and have spent more time looking at games developers and other services,” says Cotton. “That said, Sky Betting & Gaming has Oddschecker and others are likely to look at it and it might be a sensible strategy. So, yes, I’m surprised others haven’t taken that route.” Looking ahead, the obvious issue for affiliates is if the biggest of them keep getting acquired, there will need to be independent ones ready to step in. Additional reporting by Jake Pollard Supply chain control Luke Cotton, head of analytics and data at Digital Fuel Marketing, suggests that iGB Affiliate Issue 62 APR/MAY 2017 41