Human Futures No. 2 May 2018 - Page 16

Forecasts for twenty cases spanning the world and the levels: Islamic State Diagnosis Baghdad 1258 Sykes-Picot 1916 Balfour 1917 Istanbul 1918 Caliphate 1922 Wars 1991 onward Prognosis A new caliphate Islam mandated measured revenge Terrorism Western preventive war State terrorism Therapy Use military for defense only not for attack Negotiate Riyadh space for Israel Compensate for state terrorism USA-all over Diagnosis Divine mandate Coperland Imperial global structure World currency de-/inflation Prognosis US empi e decline and fall by 2020 Losing last fight to keep empire; particularly US$ China preferred Therapy Secularization A normal country lifting the bottom 70% up MEXICAN Basket wiith US$ 16 The Peace versus Violence-War Dialectic to 2050: 20 Cases Islam vs. West: counter-cyclical, Muslim togetherness-sharing expanding, Western loneliness-bureaucracy contracting; conversion to Islam and West building togetherness-sharing. Islami State and Caliphate base don imams cleanse Islam of the West reaching Mecca. NATO-USA vs. SCO: no world war, NATO dissolving, SCO not. West vs. Russia: no war, EU-Russia European House unifying. First World vs. Third World, “North-South”: the last will be the first; Africa and Latin America Caribbean matching Europe and USA. West vs. Eurasia-SCO, “West-East”: Eurasia penetrating and dominating West like China USA, not vice versa; dominion, not war. Israel vs. Palestine-Arab State: An Israel for Jews only will not survive; multi-national Israel as tolerant to Muslims-Arabs as they to Jews and Christians as People of the Book, with Jews all over, will. Japan-USA vs. Russia-Two Chinas-Two Koreas over Islands: violence-war likely unless shared ownership of islands and profit is practiced. China vs. ASEAN in the South China Sea: war likely unless US aircraft carriers are withdrawn; sharing ownership, fisheries, and profit. North Korea vs. the USA: war likely unless peace treaty, normalization with North Korea and a nuclear-free Korean peninsula are practiced. M AY 2 0 1 8 Ukrainian “on the border” Diagnosis West-East 395 Schism 1056 Massacred by Stalin, Hitler One State with two nations; Ukranian_Uniate Russian-Orthodox Crimea: a 1954 gift recovered Prognosis Will not work as unitary state Will not work with a president from one nation Internal war, external intervention. Therapy Federation with two nations; One close to EU One to Russia Gas for trade Cabinet with 3, 5, 7 members rotating presidency Neutrality Israel-Palestine Diagnosis Divine mandate Coperland; Colonial structure on Arab lands Peace through security Prognosis Expansion Terrorism State terrorism (Gaza) Therapy Secularization Accept Riyadh with some swaps 1: Palestine fully recognized 2: states 6: states MEC 20: states OSAWA Security through peace Source: Johan Galtung Talk at CMI Bergen, Tuesday 21-04-2015 HUMAN FUTURES USA: one country among others but focussed on Whom to blame, with anti-Semitism; new domestic-world politics and Deep scripts coming. EU: multi-speed with the euro as common, not a single currency. SCO: will cover most of the Asian continent, blend with Eurasia. UK: will Split into Anglo-Saxon England, Celtic Wales, Scotland, Ireland, and the islands, in a Confederation of the British Isles. Russia: compensating for “unequal treaties” with dynamic Chinese immigration, making Russia grow as part of Eurasia, with violence. China: aging, will be overtaken by Africa as it passed the mini/China-Japan “dragons” that had overtaken Japan overtaking the USA. States except the most significant yielding to regions-local authorities: with a United Regions; United Nations with no veto power leaving the USA. Ability to handle fault-line conflicts inside societies: use of human rights for equality across and democracy for shared decisions. Ability to handle conflicts between-inside persons: so low that it will improve linking good, less violence linking bad-bad. Ability to handle conflict: so low that it will improve, first step seeing conflict as incompatible goals, as something to be solved. Ability to reconcile trauma: so low that it will improve, first step sharing narratives of what happened, wishing the violence undone. 17