HP Innovation Journal Issue 12: Summer 2019 | Page 23

Larger cities will especially begin to resemble stand-alone
markets, with increasingly independent governments,
trade, and economies. This shift will create opportunities
for new business models and services focused on conve-
nience and offering everything as-a-service (think Uber,
Lime, and Blue Apron in the U.S., and Go-Jek in Asia).
The growth of these standalone markets will create
greater demand for high-skilled labor, more job openings,
and higher wages, all of which will draw more and more
people toward cities for their economic promise.
CITIES FEEL THE SQUEEZE
Of course, all change comes with growing pains, and there
are bound to be plenty of challenges created by accelerat-
ing urbanization. With roughly six million people moving
into cities each month—creating the equivalent of a new
Toronto or Madrid every 30 days—urban infrastructures,
water, and other resources will all be strained to the limit.
By 2030, an estimated $57.2 trillion worth of new infra-
structure will be needed worldwide. 14 This urban growth
will put tremendous pressure on government and busi-
ness leaders to find sustainable solutions, and cities will
be forced to evolve in ways that make living and working
spaces smaller, smarter, and more efficient.
IN THE REAR VIEW: URBANIZATION
THROUGH HISTORY
When it comes to picturing the flourishing cities of the
future, it’s important to take a moment to look over our
shoulders as well.
In examining patterns and echoes
from the past, lessons from history
can help create insights and a clearer
vision of what is to come. For centuries,
economic growth has been spurred by
major migrations into cities.
In the 18th and 19th centuries, people began moving off of
farms at an increasing pace to find jobs created by urban
industrialization. After World War II, plentiful blue-collar
jobs drew even more workers to migrate into cities and
their metropolitan suburbs. More recently, as manufac-
turing was outsourced to emerging markets, workforces
in developed markets adapted by moving into office jobs,
many of which were located in cities.
FUTURE TRIPPING: AUTOMATION
AND THE URBAN WORKFORCE
Going forward, increased urbanization will go hand in hand
with the growing and reshaping of the economic landscape
and the productivity gained by automation. Today, the bulk
of the population around the world is either aging out of
the workforce or is college-age or younger. The result is a
proportionately shrinking working age population and an
ever-increasing need to use physical and virtual machines
(e.g., software) to get things done. It won’t just be cars and
factories that get automated, as white-collar jobs will be
transformed, too. Industries like banking and insurance
will employ machines to make them more productive. In
turn, a new wave of business models will create a surging
demand for high-skilled workers who are able to work with
and alongside the automation that will become an increas-
ingly critical part of growing cities.
CREATING CONVENIENCE
As the density of cities increases, their demographics will
be changing significantly as well. Younger generations will
flock to urban areas of all sizes, not just for jobs, but for
more convenient living. Millennials and Gen Zers are less
interested in home ownership than previous generations.
They prefer low-hassle and less-permanent apartment
living. Instead of cooking at home, they prefer premade
foods and delivery services. Millennials prioritize
travel and experiences over “stuff,” giving rise to more
simplified and mobile lifestyles that prioritize convenience,
speed, and affordability.
The Gen Z generation—those
born after the mid-1990s—values
authentic experiences even more
than the Millennials, which has cre-
ated a growing market for artisanal
versions of everyday commodities—
everything from the foods they eat
and the beer they drink, to the
mattresses they sleep on (e.g., Casper).
Businesses that can create super-convenient ways to cater
to the needs of these new consumers will have an oppor-
tunity to cash in on the frictionless and specialized world
that they value.
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