HP Innovation Journal Issue 02: Spring 2016 | Page 5

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Two-thirds of the population Two-Thirds of the Population will live in cities 2050 Will Live in Cities by by 2050 1950 2050 =10% of the world population There’s so much change happening around us these days that it’s easy to forget the speed at which things are changing. We now have more computing power in our pocket than all of NASA had in 1969 to put the first man on the moon. India sent a spacecraft to Mars for less money than it took Hollywood to make the movie Gravity. 1 It took Uber a mere four years to hit $10 Billion in gross revenue. 2 And Artificial Intelligence took just 42 hours to solve the 100-year-old mystery of how flatworms regenerate body parts. 3 This pace of change will continue to accel- erate at warp speed, with more change expected in the next 15 years than in all of human history to date. So how does a company like HP stay ahead of all this change, to innovate, adapt, reinvent and engineer experiences for a future that promises to look very different from today? While we can’t know what the future will hold, we can look to the major socio-eco- nomic, demographic and technological trends occurring across the globe to help guide us: megatrends that we believe will have a sustained, transformative impact on the world in the years ahead - on business- es, societies, economies, cultures and our personal lives. At HP, we’ve identified four major meg- atrends: Rapid Urbanization, Changing Demographics, Hyper Globalization, and Accelerated Innovation. Rapid urbanization By 2030 there will be 8.5 billion peopl e walking the earth. 4 97% of that population growth will be in emerging economies, 5 and most of these people will choose to call cities their home. By 2025, 5B people will live in cities, 2.5B of them in Asia. 6 And as people move to cities, our cities will get larger, and we’ll have more of them, including megacities in places many of us have never heard of today. In 1990 there were only 10 cities with more than Rural Population Urban Population Rural (%) Urban (%) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 70 66 63 61 57 53 48 44 40 37 34 30 34 37 39 43 47 52 56 60 63 66 World Urbanization Prospects: Revision, United Nations Population Division DIvision Source: Source: World Urbanization Prospects: 2014 2014 Revision, United Nations Population 10 million people, 7 but by 2030 we will have 41 such megacities. 8 Meanwhile, the area of urbanized land could triple globally from 2000 to 2030. This is equivalent to adding an area bigger than Manhattan every single day. 9 With bigger cities come major economic growth. By 2025, urbanization will welcome an additional 1.8B consumers to the world economy, 95% of them in emerging mar- kets. 10 And consumers in emerging markets are forecast to spend $30T in 2025, up from $12T in 2010. 11 However, urbanization is not only driving economic growth, it is also changing how we buy and consume prod- ucts and services, propelling the sharing economy and convenience-based services. But urbanization is also having a toll on the environment. If nothing changes by 2030, mankind would need the resources of two planets to sustain its current lifestyle. 12 And so sustainability becomes an even more important theme, for consumers and businesses alike. How can HP address some of the oppor- tunities and challenges posed by rapid urbanization? Given that city economies are becoming as big as country economies, should HP consider putting in place City Managers for top tier cities of the future? How can we reduce the energy used across the lifetime of our products? How can we of- fer people living in cities more convenience through new services? Changing demographics Simultaneously, changing demographics will dramatically shift the tapestry of our society. As fertility rates decline and life expectancy increases, the composition of our popu- lation, and our workforce, will shift older. By 2060 we’ll have 3B more people over the age of 30 than today. 13 More and more countries are becoming super-aged, mean- ing that more than 20% of their population are over the age of 65. 14 And by 2030 we’ll have twice as many people over 65, nearly 1B. 15 China is a perfect example of this phe- nomenon. Today 26% of their population is over the age of 55. By 2030 that number will grow to 43%. 16 To deal with this shift they recently rescinded their one child policy after 35 years. > Innovation Journal Issue 2 5