No matter what we are talking about, success is all relative. A kid that has the odds stacked against him, works as hard as possible, holds down a job at 16, and is able to graduate high school can be viewed a success to his family. Then again, a kid could come from a family of doctors and be provided with every opportunity to succeed, and success may not be acknowledged until he’s wearing a white coat and telling people to “take two and call me in the morning.”
Different worlds. Different definitions of success.
The concept of success for NHL draft picks is similarly relative. Take a guy that plays 500 games in the NHL—that’s a helluva career for a sixth round pick that didn’t expect to hear his name called at the Draft. Likewise, it’s an accomplishment for the organization that gave the underrated prospect a chance make it among the world’s best. But if the 500-game career belongs to a #1 overall pick, suddenly the player is labeled a “bust” and the team is publically shamed for wasting a gigantic opportunity. Just ask Patrik Stefan or Alexandre Daigle.
It’s no secret that the best way to lay the foundation for a strong future in today’s NHL is to have success at the draft table. But what does that entail? Making the most of those treasured first round picks? Sure. What about finding the diamond in the rough during the late rounds (you know, the picks that are going on in the background while analysts are talking about the winners and losers of the draft that’s still happening)? Of course, that’s great too. But long-term success for the upper echelon teams may be focused on a part of the draft that falls somewhere in between the glamour of the first round and the forgotten later rounds.
Do you want the next Shea Weber, Patrice Bergeron, or Duncan Keith? Of course you do. You don’t need to have the top picks in the draft—you just need to have an organization that gets it right on June 30.
You see, each of those players were respected going into the Draft, each team was happy to have the opportunity to add those players to their respective teams, and each player was selected in the second round.
It’s been one of the secrets to success for contenders over the last few years: make the most of those second round picks. A perfect example is this year’s Stanley Cup Final between the Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks. Just like when they won the Cup in 2011, the Bruins depended heavily on second round picks Milan Lucic, David Krejci, and Patrice Bergeron. Likewise, the Hawks made the Final for the second time in recent memory and have also depended on guys that were selected in the second round. Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith has been a cornerstone for the team. Dave Bolland filled an important role on the 2010 Cup winning team, while Bryan Bickell picked up a similar role during the 2013 playoff run. All the while, the Hawks depended on Corey Crawford to keep the puck out of the net. All second round draft picks.
Last year’s Final told a similar story. The Kings saw Slava Voynov blossom as a top 4 defenseman that saw valuable minutes during LA’s march to the Cup. In fact, his value translated at the trade deadline as well—because of his emergence; the Kings were able to trade Jack Johnson to Columbus to acquire some much needed scoring. In many ways, he afforded GM Dean Lombardi the opportunity to find the final piece of the puzzle.
It wasn’t the first time the Kings saw trade doors opened because of strong second round decisions. Former Kings’ winger Wayne Simmonds was a second round pick in 2008 and a key piece that helped the organization acquire Mike Richards during the summer of 2012. It may not have translated to a career with the Kings, but make no mistake, the Simmonds selection certainly proved valuable for LA.
The flipside of this winning formula is the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers have made a living by jumping from lily pad to lily pad with trades, free agent signings, and Ed Snider’s money. But with the salary cap era upon us, it’s imperative for teams to have cheap players coming up through the ranks to not only provide depth, but to offer as attractive trade bait to bring in the high-profile skaters. Just before the first lockout, the Flyers showed that the Draft was a secondary priority; instead choosing to trade valuable second round picks for established NHL players. From 1998-2008, the Flyers only had six second round picks—and only two of those picks were before the lockout. Not surprisingly, they have very little high-end depth in their prospect pool and have a hard time finding inexpensive players to fill important roles on their team.
What’s most interesting is the raw data of second round draft picks. From 1998-2008, there were 367 players drafted in the second round. Of those players, only about 29% of those players went on to play at least 100 games at the NHL level; and only 21% would play at least 200 games. Even more daunting, only about 13% of players go on to score at least 100 points in their career.
Yet, for those teams that place value on second rounders, the rewards can make the difference between a successful team with depth and a floundering team looking to find their way.
Jason Pominville brought a king’s ransom from the Minnesota Wild at the trade deadline. Former second rounder Alex Goligoski was used as trade bait by the Penguins to acquire a skilled winger in James Neal. For that matter, former second rounder James Neal was used as trade bait for the Dallas Stars to acquire a young top 4 defenseman.
David Backes, Mike Cammalleri, Derek Roy, Mike Fisher, Paul Stastny, Loui Eriksson, Jarret Stoll, Brandon Dubinsky, and Jiri Hudler—all second rounders. What do they have in common? They’re all players that were passed up by every NHL team in the first round.
Take PK Subban, Paul Martin, Matt Carle, Jordan Leopold, Trevor Daley, Nick Schultz, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and Travis Hamonic as other examples. What do all of these players have in common? They’re all valuable defensemen that, you guessed it, were also passed up by every NHL team in the first.
Needless to say, there’s high-end talent available in every draft for organizations that have good scouting departments to hit a home run. Look at recently successful teams like the Bruins, Blackhawks, and Kings, and you’ll find that some teams have already figured it out. They make the most of their second round draft picks—whether they find a permanent role on their own team or help bring in future pieces via trade. Regardless, it’s those types of players that help a team create depth and set the foundation for perennial success.
Keep that in mind when NHL Network starts focusing on the talking heads more than the draft picks on June 30. Names that are selected in the second round may not be as exciting as the likes of Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon, and Jonathan Drouin, but there’s probably a player or two in there that will compete for the Norris Trophy in the future. Maybe there’s a Selke Trophy winner in there, too—but undoubtedly, there are future Stanley Cup winners that will be taken right after the glamour picks.
All you can do is hope that your team is the one that knows what it’s doing when the bright lights of the first round fade and the contenders start doing work.
Matt Reitz is Founder/Creator of the hockey website ViewFromMySeats.com ◉