HOCK.ly - Future of Hockey Content 2013-2014 Season Preview | Page 61

the New Jersey Devils missed the post-season completely despite driving the play most of the year. Since puck possession is one of the more persistent and predictable skills, it's quite possible the two teams will swap positions this season should this situation continue.

Relative Corsi

It was only a matter of time before a statistic like Corsi was used for individual players. In this context it is usually represented as a differential instead of a percentage, and expressed as a rate over 60 minutes of even-strength player. For example, Justin Williams led the NHL last season with a Corsi of +29.8. That means that Los Angeles enjoyed 29.8 more attempted shots than their opponents whenever Williams was on the ice. In contrast, Toronto had 31.7 fewer attempted shots than their opponents when Jay McClement was on the ice.

There are several complications when using Corsi for individuals instead of teams. The first one is obvious, since we know that Los Angeles had the puck 57.4% of the time and Toronto just 44.0% of the time. Clearly that partly explains why Williams is first and McClement is last. That's why a player's Corsi is usually expressed relative to how the team did without that player on the ice. For example, Williams has a Relative Corsi of +24.0, since the Kings had a Corsi of +29.8 when he was on the ice, and +5.8 when he wasn't. Similarly, McClement's Relative Corsi is -23.7, since the Leafs had a Corsi of -31.7 when he was on the ice, and -8.0 when he wasn't.

There's still another major difference between Williams and McClement, of course. When using Corsi (or any statistic at all) on an individual level, a player's usage is critical. A player's line mates, his usual opponents, and even the zone in which he's asked to play can affect all of their statistics, both traditional and non-traditional.

Williams, for example, played with the amazing Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown on L.A's top line, and started 57.5% of his (non-neutral) shifts in the offensive zone. His most frequent opponents included mostly top-line forwards like Corey Perry and Zach Parise, but also checking specialists like Eric Nystrom. On the other hand, McClement started only 27.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone, played with Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin, and his most frequent opponents included almost exclusively players like Alexander Ovechkin, Daniel Alfredsson and Rick Nash.

Three statistics are used to measure a player's usage. The offensive boost a player receives is measured by his offensive zone start percentage, which is the percentage of non-neutral shifts that a player began in the offensive zone. The quality of one's competition and one's team mates is most commonly measured by the average Corsi (or Relative Corsi) of those players, and more recently by the average ice-time of one's opponents. This information is available in the NHL's game files, but helpfully parsed and presented by the same two websites mentioned above.

All of a player's usage information, and their Relative Corsi, can be presented on a Player Usage Chart, like the following example of the Toronto Maple Leafs, once again from Hockey Prospectus 2013-14. Throughout the season everyone can make their own Player Usage Charts using a tool at Hockey Abstract, at the risk of quickly losing all track of time.