Hazard Risk Resilience Magazine Volume 1 Issue1 | Page 8

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS From Around the World Detecting landslides with earthquake monitoring networks Large, fast landslides, especially those formed from hard rock, generate earthquake waves that can be recorded remotely. This provides the potential to detect remotely large landslides as they occur and to determine parameters such as the speed of movement. A recent study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research investigated these seismic signals, focusing on whether properties of a landslide, such as volume, can be derived from the seismic signals recorded remotely. To do this, 20 known rockslides from the Alps were compiled, and the data recorded in the regional seismic network was analysed for each event. The research demonstrates that these events are indeed detectable and that they tend to have a characteristic set of waveforms – a landslide ‘finger print’ – that allows them to be distinguished from other events that generate seismic signals. The research shows that scientists are one step closer to remote monitoring of large landslide events, especially those in high mountain areas, which may allow both a better understanding of the frequency of these large landslides, and the hazards themselves in real time. Dammeier, F., Moore, J., Haslinger, F., & Loew, S. (2011). Characterization of alpine rockslides using statistical analysis of seismic signals. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116 (F4) DOI: 10.1029/2011JF002037 New model for understanding rock fall behaviour No increase in global risk for big earthquakes Rockfalls kill hundreds of people per year worldwide, and they cause severe economic disruption along railway lines and roads. During the winter of 2011-12 in Scotland, a series of rockfalls on the A890 between Lochcarron and Kyle led to its closure for over two months causing long detours (in some cases over 200 km) and serious economic disruption to local communities. Over the last decade, there have been many studies that have tried to relate rates of rockfall activity to environmental drivers such as rainfall, frost and strong winds. Perhaps surprisingly, these studies have shown poor correlations between these environmental drivers and the rockfalls themselves. Recent research published in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms provides a spectacular set of laser scan datasets to look at the evolution of rockslope failure in Yosemite National Park. In particular, it showed that 14 rockfalls in late 2010 occurred in a sequence and suggests that it was caused by stress redistributions associated with each rockfall event. Researchers have developed a mechanical model to explain this process. Whilst it has long been suggested that the development of cracks might be the controlling process for rockfalls, (explaining why they do not respond to environmental drivers) this study is the first to propose a direct mechanical model for explaining how these events occur. Despite the large magnitude earthquakes that have occurred in Japan, New Zealand, Sumatra, Chile and other parts of the world, the global risk of big earthquakes is no higher today than in the past, according to a study published in PNAS. Researchers examined the timing of large earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or higher from 1900 to present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks, in order to identify any anomalies when comparing present and past earthquake records. While the global rate of earthquakes 8 or higher in magnitude is at a record high since 2004, rates have been nearly as high in the past, and the rate of smaller quakes is close to the historical average. Any global rate changes in earthquake risk would require the existence of actual physical mechanisms that could cause such changes in the first place. While it is possible for large earthquakes to trigger other earthquakes, this process increases the earthquake risk regionally, not globally. The s