H2GC Reports US sports betting: the road to 2030 | Page 10

The forecasts
The forecasts
Straight to capacity
Strong performance early months
Early indications are that US onshore regulated and
reported sports betting gross win grew by just over
3x in September to reach $75m. H2 now expects
gross win to be c$116m by December 2018.
State-by-reconciliation going forward – igaming
to follow?
As part of its subscriber service H2 is providing
monthly reconciliations for each state that
releases data with its prior forecasts/updating
them where necessary. To date following the
release of July and August data its forecasts
were revised upward by just over 2% each time.
Early results demonstrate that sports betting
has come out of the blocks much faster than
igaming and is now expected to reach its potential
Chart 7: Monthly sports betting gross win 2018
($m)
140
Chart 8: H2 sports betting forecasts year 1
sensitivity
133
1.14
1.11
1.12
119
120
far quicker – primarily due to daily fantasy sports
(DFS) pioneering, untapped illegal demand, and
high exposure. Indeed it appears an important part
of igaming achieving its potential.
September saw the NFL regular season
commence. H2 had expected that this may have
generated a c25% sequential premium on the
August data but initial data appears to show
the premium may have been as much as 2.5-3x
this rate. The net impact on H2’s forecasts was
+c11% for 2018, however due to the speed of
development longer term the upward revision
has not been so sensitive at $4.96bn to $5.33bn
for 2023 – a 7.4% increase since the post
Supreme Court decision in May, with some of
this a result of the addition tribal activity.
1.10
100
99
100
1.08
1.06
80
1.04
1.00
34
23
0.96
0
0.94
8
21
25
17
11
20
1.00
0.98
26
40
10
1.03
1.02
60
0
1.02
US sports betting: the road to 2030 November 2018