Global Security and Intelligence Studies Volume 2, Issue 1, Fall 2016 | Page 74

Global Security and Intelligence Studies
Long-term Static Targets
Based on characteristics and trends of past lone wolf attacks within the United
States, likely long-term static targets include prominent government facilities, sports
stadiums, chemical plants and facilities, natural gas pipelines, and similar infrastructure.
Depending on the desired effect, drones provide terrorists few advantages in targeting
some structures, such as bridges, sports stadiums and some government facilities, due
to the close proximity they can attain through vehicles and other means of transporting
a significantly larger explosive payload. Areas with layered security and standoff,
however, may be more vulnerable to drones, which can achieve greater proximity to
protected sites by approaching targets via flight (Jackson et al. 2008, 28). Hence, a lone
wolf terrorist could feasibly use an explosive-laden drone to cause much more damage
to a chemical plant than by attempting to use another payload delivery method.
Long-term static targets are easier for a terrorist to target, due to their
permanence and a terrorist’s ability to conduct reconnaissance through virtual or
physical means and attack on his/her own timeline. On the other hand, this permanence
allows for a more robust defense, including physical standoff and obstacles, radar, and
passive sensors. In targeting long-term static structures, payload is generally the most
important feature, as the explosive blast may need to rupture pipes or other metallic
walls to detonate protected chemicals or inflict damage on targets within a structure.
Range is also vital to success, as the drone may need to traverse considerable physical
standoff posed by perimeter fences, restricted areas and a lack of dead space offering
concealment. The importance of flight time varies among targets, as this factor is
directly proportional to physical standoff. Speed is less vital to mission success, as the
likelihood of interdiction remains low, even if guards or other defense measures detect
the drone.
Temporary Static Targets
Short-term, or temporary, static targets are more dynamic than long-term
static targets and, though often scheduled far in advance, locations may change due
to weather or other unforeseen factors. Such targets include summits, speeches by
politicians and sporting events or large gatherings, often containing some degree of
local security (Abbott et al. 2016, 15). Lone wolves might attack particular events for
ideological reasons, but may also seek to capitalize on live media coverage and a high
concentration of people. In many such instances, security is such that a terrorist might
infiltrate a crowd with a larger explosive device, such as the pressure cookers in the
Boston Marathon bombing of 2013. A drone, despite payload limitations, does not
require prepositioning and the terrorist can guide the bomb remotely to the largest
concentration of people in real-time. This method bypasses typical forms of security
and detection, increasing the odds of success.
Payload is the most significant factor in an attack deliberately targeting a crowd
of people, as the terrorist aims to inflict the greatest number of casualties. Small metallic
objects packed around the explosives can enhance this objective, producing shrapnel
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