Global Security and Intelligence Studies Volume 2, Issue 1, Fall 2016 | Page 70

Global Security and Intelligence Studies
grow as forecasted by researchers. The Diffusion of Innovations Theory, introduced
by French sociologist Gabriel Tarde in 1903 and further developed by E.M. Rogers
in 1995, closely relates to this study of terrorists’ use of consumer drones. This theory
investigates “the conditions which increase or decrease the likelihood that a new idea,”
such as using an explosive-laden consumer drone in a terrorist attack, “will be adopted
by members of a given culture,” such as lone wolf terrorists in the United States
(“Diffusion of Innovations Theory” 2016). Conditions contributing to the likelihood
of lone wolves using drones include types of targets, advantages achieved through use
of a drone, availability and cost, payload capacity, and the ability to use a drone as a
lone operator with little training or practice. Rogers explained innovation “consists of
four stages: invention, diffusion through the social system, time, and consequences”
(“Diffusion of Innovations Theory” 2016). These stages represent factors influencing
how ideas spread through a society and the rate at which members of that society
adopt these ideas. Rogers elaborated on diffusion, stating that there are five categories
of adopters, all following a standard deviation curve, with innovators espousing the
new idea in the earliest stages (2.5%), early adopters following suit shortly thereafter
(13.5%), the early majority (34%), the late majority (34%), and the laggards (16%)
(“Diffusion of Innovations Theory” 2016). In regard to the consumer drone dilemma,
terrorists, in general, remain in the invention phase as innovators experiment with the
concept of delivering explosives in an attack via air. As terrorists continue to experiment
with drones, the probability of such an attack increases as consumer drones become
more widely available and the government lags behind in legislation and restrictions.
Analysis and Findings
It is necessary to thoroughly review trends among past lone wolf attacks in the
United States in order to assess implications of new consumer drone technology
available to terrorists. Trends reveal commonalities in target selection and aid in
predictive analysis. Comparing drone models currently on the market reveals potential
new capabilities for lone wolves, helping to discern how such terrorists might employ
drones against select targets. A study of strengths and weaknesses of various defense
mechanisms further sheds light on weaknesses in homeland security. A careful study
of these factors exposes faults and gaps that must change, aiding in determining the
most practical recommendations to shore up these vulnerabilities.
Lone Wolf Terrorism within the United States
Established terrorist groups have attempted to use drones in attacks, but most
incidents have occurred in the Middle East. With large sums of money and resources,
these groups have had the means to purchase or capture a drone and equip it with
explosives. Even so, large groups such as Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State have not
conducted a drone attack in the United States, preferring to use bombs or firearms in
attacks. Payoffs involved in utilizing consumer drones generally do not support these
larger terrorist groups’ objectives. The limited payload of consumer drones does not
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