Global Security and Intelligence Studies Volume 2, Issue 1, Fall 2016 | Page 69

An Assessment of Lone Wolves Using Explosive-Laden Consumer Drones in the United States
(Gallagher 2013). The motive was purely political, but the proximity of the drone to a
head of state revealed a new challenge for security forces to tackle. Another high-profile
incident occurred in January 2015, when a government employee accidently crashed
his friend’s DJI Phantom quadcopter into the White House lawn (Schmidt and Shear
2015). The innocent mistake exposed vulnerabilities of one of the most protected sites
on U.S. soil and demonstrated how a sole actor can circumvent traditional security
measures to gain access and proximity to a target. Just 3 months later, Japanese police
arrested a man who landed a drone carrying a bottle of radioactive sand on the roof
of the Japanese Prime Minister’s Tokyo office (Abbott et al. 2016, 12, 14). Although
many drone incidents are unintentional or carried out without harmful intent, these
events highlight a relatively new capability available to the public, particularly lone
wolf terrorists who may procure explosives, purchase a consumer drone and conduct
an attack independently. The gravity of this drone risk increases each year, as the FAA
estimates that “by 2020 there could be as many as 30,000 drones in the sky in the
United States alone” (McKelvey, Diver, and Curran 2015, 44). Government policies
lag far behind this evolving threat, presenting significant concerns for the near future.
What is the feasibility of a lone wolf using an explosive-laden consumer drone
to conduct an attack in the United States? This question necessitates a thorough
investigation of trends among lone wolf attacks and profile characteristics of a lone
wolf in the United States, capabilities of drones currently on the market, modern
and future defense measures, legislation relevant to drone flight and sales. Given
current conditions, a reasonable hypothesis is that if the U.S. Government stalls
in producing legislation relevant to consumer drones and corporations fail to take
adequate steps in enhancing defense measures, then the feasibility of a lone wolf ’s use
of an explosive-laden consumer drone increases, as does the probability of success in
targeting infrastructure, the public or a high-profile individual. The purpose of this
study is therefore three-fold: (1) to analyze the feasibility for a lone wolf to use an
explosive-laden consumer drone in an attack within the United States; (2) to assess the
vulnerabilities and security gaps based on current defense mechanisms and forecasted
drone capabilities; and (3) provide recommendations for further analysis of relevant
threats and risk mitigation strategies.
Analytical Framework
This study investigates the security concern that lone wolf terrorists may affix
explosives to consumer drones for use in a domestic terrorist attack. The
independent variable in this research is the feasibility of employing an explosiveladen
consumer drone in a terrorist attack in the United States. Independent variables
include consumer drone capabilities and limitations (present and future), relevant
domestic lone wolf terrorism trends (i.e., target type, weapon of choice, ideologies),
defense mechanisms and policies governing drone manufacture and use.
Analysis in this study relies on the assumption that lone wolf terrorism
trends will generally remain consistent in the near future. Another assumption is that
consumer drone technology will continue to improve and popularity will continue to
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