AFRICA
5 AFRICA STORIES TO WATCH IN 2018
From murder cults to fictional states, Jeremy Luedi - editor of Asia by Africa - brings you the five
developing stories to watch as we head into 2018.
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THE FALL OF (GRACE) MUGABE
The ageing Robert Mugabe’s departure was only a matter of
time. It was accelerated by the very public factionalism and
succession squabbling within ZANU-PF - and by the seeming
rise of Grace Mugabe.
Forty years Mugabe’s junior, Grace could have been in power
for decades to come. However, she faced levels of intra-
party disdain akin to Jiang Qing (aka Madame Mao) and
public hatred a la Elena Ceausescu. Indeed, the general
dislike of Grace arguably played a bigger role in catalysing
the regime’s downfall than her husband’s popularity (or lack
thereof).
Going into 2018, the prospects for Zimbabwean democracy are uncertain, as President Emmerson
Mnangagwa is no ardent democrat. A long-time supporter of Mr. Mugabe, he has held various cabinet
positions in the last three decades, and boasts his own list of links to state crimes.
Moreover, at 75 Mnangagwa represents the same kind of generational divide that alienated Mugabe
from Zimbabwe’s young population. Having a leader 55 years older than the country’s median age could
easily result in the same kind of disenchantment and resentment engendered by the nonagenarian
Mugabe - watch this space.
TRUMP DUMPS CHAD
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The Trump administration was lambasted for its decision to add Chad - a regional counter-terror ally - to
the infamous travel ban. Political opponents and Pentagon hawks alike criticized the move, arguing that
it undermines America’s efforts to fight extremism in North Africa.
Chad is seen as the anvil to Nigeria’s hammer in the latter’s north-eastern offensives against Boko
Haram. Former U.S ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, has praised Chad, stating that the Chadian
military “is one of the toughest around, particularly in West Africa.”
But the country is not an ideal partner. Idriss Déby’s regime uses its carefully cultivated image as an
anti-terror ally to wrangle aid from the West while downplaying domestic human rights and economic
concerns. Instability in Chad in 2018, and whether the government uses the same Western-sponsored
security forces currently fighting extremists to subdue the populace, could validate Trump’s decision.
The contested 2016 election (which saw Déby win by the lowest margin to date), and the
disappearance of several senior military members for allegedly voting against Déby, show that he is still
consolidating power. Fiscal belt-tightening will continue into 2018, and has already seen mass anti-
austerity protests, with Déby threatening to dissolve public sector unions.
Military setbacks for ISIS in the Middle East will also see the group increase its presence in less
contested regions such as the Sahel. Spotty funding for the Sahel G5 security organ and the ripple
effects from Trump’s travel ban do not put Chad on the best of footings heading into 2018.
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