Global Risk Outlook 2018 Volume 1 | Page 28

TECHNOLOGY The future of conflict

PRINT YOUR OWN DRONE

The new era of conflict and security will continue to evolve rapidly in 2018 , as we see progress on emerging technologies such as additive manufacturing , autonomous weapons , swarming , and artificial intelligence . Mauro Lubrano explains .
SWARMING DRONES refer to collaborative systems made up of small , unmanned aircraft . They are cheap and capable of reducing human casualties . Swarm drones have not been used in warfare yet , but are being developed and tested by the US and the Chinese . Combined with artificial intelligence , they would be able to perform complex operations , adapting to sudden changes , and dividing tasks within the swarm .
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE and autonomous weapon systems often give rise to ethical debate . Despite limited current capabilities , autonomy is already a reality , used for targeting and intelligencegathering . It ' s often mistakenly believed that autonomous weapons systems will replace humans completely - but they will most likely continue to be complementary .
Some versions of TACTICAL MINIATURIZED DRONES are specifically designed to operate individually . The Switchblade drone is a small , disposable backpack drone that can be deployed by infantry for intelligence , surveillance , and reconnaissance , but also for precision strikes . In an asymmetric conflict scenario , they could theoretically replace airstrikes and cut down the related costs .
3-D PRINTING is a technological system capable of printing objects from scratch . It ' s rapidly becoming accessible and affordable . From a security standpoint , it could not only allow anyone to manufacture small arms , but could also affect missile non-proliferation regimes , as it could prove useful in building vital components of missiles . Additionally , 3-D printing could easily be applied to produce drones . There are obvious implications in terms of terrorist threats .
The history of warfare is a history of technological innovation . The war chariots from the Eurasian steppes mowed down the bronze-armored infantry of Mesopotamia and Egypt in 1800 BC , just as easily as the German motorized divisions cut down the defenses of Continental Europe during the Blietzkrieg . The last century witnessed the rise of nuclear weapons and their ICBM delivery system , which has triggered the era of deterrence . Yet , technologies are advancing at an exponential pace and major breakthroughs are being achieved in fields that will have a great impact on military doctrines . As warfare and international security enter a new stage , keeping an eye on the development of emerging technologies will be instrumental in grasping the nature of future conflict .
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