MENA Turkey
ERDOGAN UPS THE ANTE
In April 2017 , the narrow victory of the ‘ yes ’ camp in the constitutional referendum paved the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ’ s plan to install a presidential system of government after the 2019 elections . Leo Kabouche explains how 2018 will set the stage for that transition .
Turkey ’ s 2018 political agenda will be shaped by three ballots that are due in 2019 : the municipal elections in March , and the parliamentary and presidential elections in November . Following these votes , the current parliamentary system will be replaced by an executive presidential system of government that will significantly increase President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ’ s powers . Among the changes introduced by the constitutional reform , the President will become head of the executive as well as head of state . Erdogan will be able to appoint ministers , prepare the budget , choose the majority of senior judges and enact certain laws by decree .
Erdogan ’ s party , the ruling religiously conservative Justice and Development Party ( AKP ) will likely win the elections and remain in power until 2024 . Although the AKP suffers from a popularity deficit since the referendum , Erdogan still has considerable political capital . Moreover , it is likely the government will use the state of emergency law to intensify its policy of arbitrary arrests in the run-up of the 2019 elections . This will result in the imprisonment of political opponents at home and the implementation of clandestine networks to target dissidents abroad .
The political opposition is too disunited and marginalized to pose a serious threat to the AKP ’ s dominance . The right-wing Nationalist Action Party ( MHP ) has flip-flopped , and gave its support to the constitutional reform ; the pro-Kurdish People ’ s Democratic Party ( HDP ) has been weakened by successive waves of arrests and runs the risk of falling below the 10 % national vote threshold for parliamentary representation . In this context , President Erdogan ' s only credible challenger seems to be Meral Aksener , also known as Turkey ’ s ‘ Iron Lady ’ ( see Parties , above ). However , her hopes of winning are slight , as she would need the support of the Republican People ’ s Party ( CHP ) and has to attract votes from Kurds and nationalists , who currently vote for the AKP .
Shifting foreign policy Turkish diplomacy shifted focus in 2017 . The country drew closer to Russia , China and Iran , while relations with its Western allies deteriorated , a trend that is expected to continue into 2018 . Turkey is well placed to expand its role in the region while Saudi Arabia and Iran are preoccupied with internal and external challenges .
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