EUROPE
Russia
PUTIN
4.0:
THE
LEGACY
EDITION
Putin enters the Presidential election year of 2018 in arguably the strongest-ever position
internationally - and the weakest he has been domestically. Ryan Steele examines the consequences.
Putin will win the 2018 Presidential election - this
would be the case even without voting fraud. The most
recent polls by the Fund for Public Opinion (FOM) and
the Levada Center currently have Putin at 68% and
53%, respectively. Quite simply, the roster of legitimate
challengers to Putin is short, and this is unlikely to
change before the election in 2018.
While the final list of candidates has yet to be decided –
with Putin only formally declaring his candidacy on 6
December – there are also-rans who invariably serve as
foils. The two stalwarts are the Communist Gennady
Zyuganov and the Liberal Democrat – who is neither a
liberal nor a democrat – Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
Then there are those who truly wish to challenge Putin, but have no chance. The most interesting in this
category are former socialite Ksenia Sobchak, and the perennial whipping boy of Putin’s rigged legal system
and former Moscow mayoral runner-up, Aleksey Navalny. The Federal Electoral Commission has stated that
he will not be allowed to run for the presidency, stemming from a past embezzlement conviction of dubious
veracity. Still, Navalny’s influential anti-corruption videos and blog posts have done damage to Putin and
members of his inner circle. His video exposing the wealth that Dmitry Medvedev has amassed when in
power has potentially even delegitimized the Prime Minister from further government service after his term
ends in 2018.
Indeed, as pointed out by Aaron Schwartzbaum, a key indicator to watch is whom Putin chooses as his
running mate. Should he choose a reformer, such as ex-finance minister Aleksey Kudrin, it's a sign that he is
prepared to move the Russian economy away from state subsidization of private industry and unwieldy
social spending. On the other hand, should he stick with Medvedev, it would be a show of force against the
anti-corruption campaigners and a vote for the status quo.
However, there is a third option where Putin does not aim for change or continuity, instead selecting a
successor. In that case, while it is far more likely that Putin selects a stable hand, there is always a chance
that he plays a joker and picks a young up-and-coming Prime Minister that he can mold in his image. The
candidate with perhaps the most potential in this regard is the 37 year-old Nataliya Pokolonskaya, who
serves as a Duma member from Crimea and was formerly the prosecutor for the region.
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