EUROPE
Italy
ITALY'SÂ ELECTORAL EQUATIONS
As Italy readies itself for parliamentary elections, the country faces heightened political uncertainty. It
is likely that none of the major parties will garner sufficient votes to govern. GRI's Alexander Brotman
and Nicola Bilotta calculate the probability - and risks - of various scenarios.
Uncertainty has always been
queen of the Italian political
scene, and under new electoral
ty:
ili
bab
Pro
rules, instability looks like the only
85%
possible winner once again. Any
political party will need to establish
a coalition to be able to govern and
even then, none will be sure to
have the numbers to effectively
lead the country.
As the third-largest economy in the
eurozone, Italy's future is important
to how ongoing debates - such as
40%
the migrant crisis and Brexit
negotiations - shape European
politics. The March 2018 elections
carry risks from left- and right-wing
Eurosceptic parties, which seek to
undermine Franco-German alliance
building.
With the Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Hungary and Poland drifting in a
similarly populist direction, the
60%
outcome of Italy's vote will be key.
For more on the challenges
Europe as a whole will
face in 2018, check out
Axel Hellman's analysis
70%
on the GRI site.
19