Global Risk Outlook 2018 Volume 1 | Page 20

of border controls . It foresees the potential closure of religious spaces used for recruitment and incitement purposes , the possibility of conducting antiterrorist raids leading to the temporary detention of suspects prior to an actual accusation , and the broadening of house arrest criteria .
An evolution of the threat Given these changes to the tactical realities and strategic outlook of radical Islamist cells , it ’ s fair to say that the terrorist threat in the country has been evolving over the last 12 months .
Militants maintain strong intent to conduct attacks in France . However , authorities have become more proficient in disrupting complex plots that necessitate coordination , communication and planning between a squad involving a large group of people .
As such , it is highly likely that in 2018 , France will be exposed to further lone-assailant attacks in which militants use crude weapons such as knives or cars to cause casualties and score propaganda victories .
It ' s also possible that Sunni extremists may try to manufacture low grade improvised explosive devices or use firearms . Current indicators suggest that successful attacks are likely to be the ones against large soft-targets such as transportation hubs , commercial streets , public gatherings or other venues that are difficult to fully secure .
The fight against terror and the end of the state of emergency In November 2017 , the two-year old state of emergency was lifted , and replaced by a new antiterrorism law .
The legislation provides police prefects with an increased capacity to deploy police around key touristic and commercial spaces as well as major mass events . It also extends the duration and scope
The new legislation caused heated debate over the balance between security and public liberties . It will increase the capability of security and intelligence forces to disrupt complex terrorist plots and challenge propaganda networks in the country . However , as demonstrated by the attacks that took place in France under the state of emergency , these laws continue to provide only a partial answer to crude attacks that necessitate a limited planning and coordination phase .
" France will be exposed to the risk of further lone assailant attacks ."
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