Global Risk Outlook 2018 Volume 1 | Page 19

FRANCE UNDER THREAT Although the French security posture increasingly mitigates the risk of complex attacks, the country will face an elevated risk of crude terrorist incidents in 2018. GRI Senior Editor Riccardo Dugulin explains how radical Islamist militants will almost certainly view France as a high priority target as part of their European strategy. France at the heart of the A growing internal issue Islamic State strategy Recent statements released by The Islamic State (IS), echoing al- the French internal intelligence terrorist attacks by radical Qaeda, has repeatedly identified (DGSI) provide indicators of a Islamist militants. These France as a major target, making it changing terrorist threat. The incidents left five dead and 12 a high priority for attacks in number of militants leaving the injured - substantially fewer Western Europe. country is dropping, and Sunni In 2017, France suffered five than in 2016, when Islamist radicals killed more than 90 people and left 435 injured. It’s also fewer than in 2015, when France was struck by the worst attacks in its modern history.  Despite lower casualty figures, French public authorities, extremists are increasingly staying The Islamic State has also devoted in France to plot attacks and make substantial  resources to publishing new recruits. propaganda messages in French, directly targeting specific segments In 2018, radical Islamist cells will of the French population. Evidence seek to develop small and that the strategy is working? France dynamic networks on French has been the Western European territory. Sunni extremists may country with the highest number of also try to infiltrate major French citizens leaving to fight alongside private and public institutions. security services and intelligence Sunni extremist insurgents in Syria French officials have also agencies all assess the terrorist and Iraq. expressed concerns over the threat associated with Sunni growing risk generated by the extremist militancy as a major risk in the coming year. "Now, Sunni extremists are staying in France instead of going abroad." This IS strategy also capitalises insider threat. Employees of local on the large number of radical or national public transportation Islamist networks and cells present and railway networks have been in France. According to French dismissed due to their radical intelligence, there are Islamist views. approximately 15,000 radicalised individuals in the country, and French radical Islamist networks rising. Despite the military defeats are also likely to maintain a of the Islamic State, self-radicalised certain level of communication supporters of the organisation with other European groups, continue to be able to find large especially in Spain, Belgium and amounts of propaganda material Germany. online. 18