ASIA
North Korea
PRESSURE FROM PYONGYANG
With Obama’s policy of ‘strategic patience’ effectively replaced by Trump’s policy of ‘limited
patience’, Alexander MacLeod asks - will the Korean crisis boil over in 2018?
Pyongyang’s
latest test, on
29 November,
was an
important
turning point.
Launched over the Japanese
island of Hokkaido and into the
event that Pyongyang’s missile All of this means stabilisation on the
technology is as advanced as the Korean Peninsula will be elusive in
regime claims, there would be, as a 2018. That said, the risk of an
next step, a need to conduct a outright nuclear attack by North
missile test using a live nuclear Korea will remain low, since this
warhead. However, the risks would throw off the balance Kim is
attached to such an action would treading domestically. The key thing
be probably calculated as too high. for the regime is to maintain an
Continued missile testing around
appearance of aggressive posturing.
the sea of Japan is a likelier option The question then becomes, will
this prompt the US to pull the
in the next year.
Sea of Japan, the new Hwasong-
trigger on a pre-emptive strike?
15 intercontinental ballistic Although conservatives in the missile (ICBM) reached an United States and South Korea Trump’s bark worse than his bite
altitude of 4,500km – higher believe otherwise, Kim most North Korea-US relations have
than the International Space probably views his missile fluctuated between relatively low-
Station.
According to state broadcasts,
the regime is nearing
completion of its missile and
nuclear weapons programme.
This is most likely mere
programme as a deterrent, not an level tension and periods of high
offensive measure. It offers a tension, when dangerous rhetoric
means of ensuring his domestic and demonstrations of military
legitimacy, and likely would be strength abound. Under Trump, the
difficult to contain even if Kim latter is becoming more common.
wanted to. Recall that the military Washington regularly cranks up its
is the largest and most important rhetoric against Pyongyang,
institution in North Korean society, most recently threatening that the
propaganda churned out by the as dictated by the songun or
regime. Still, most of the US
'military first' policy.
would have been within range
had the missile been launched
at a shallower trajectory.
How far will the North push?
Estimations of Pyongyang’s
missile and nuclear technology
vary, but its capabilities are
likely overblown. In the unlikely
14
regime would be "utterly destroyed"
in the event of war.