Global Risk Outlook 2018 Volume 1 | Page 14

LORENA ON BRAZIL MERICAS In 2017, Brazil experienced a political roller-coaster with corruption accusations against its current President Michel Temer, a massive corruption scandal that continues to engulf high level political figures, and a divided Congress that has challenged the President’s economic reform package. Brazilians, tired of business-as-usual, seem to be turning to candidates at the political extremes. Leftist former President, Luiz Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva, leads the polls with 36%. In second place is right wing Congressman, Jair Bolsonaro. In a scenario without Lula, who may not be allowed to run under the Clean Slate Law, Bolsonaro leads with 21%. Both Silva and Bolsonaro would bring market uncertainty, slowing investment, growth, and job creation at a critical time of economic recovery. SAM ON COLOMBIA The race has recently narrowed, but remains highly competitive and could result in a weak mandate. Current VP German Vargas Lleras, is a strong contender, while two former Conservative presidents - Alvaro Uribe and Andres Pastrana - have joined forces to nominate candidates. BENEDETTA ON VENEZUELA Nicolas Maduro’s victory in the October 2017 regional A victory by Lleras or the Uribe- elections has reduced the opposition’s hope for a Pastrana candidate would result in similar victory in the 2018 presidential elections. While likely to economic policies. Where they differ is the FARC peace plan. Uribe has been a vocal opponent and lobbied to kill the deal. Right wing parties do see the agreement as law, but threaten to adjust it on the margins, which carries destabilising risks. stay in power through 2018, Maduro's administration will continue to suffer from a legitimacy crisis and to face enormous obstacles, casting doubt on its long- term durability. The country's economy is in a critical state, with hyperinflation and hig h foreign debt. Sanctions against the regime by US and European Lleras is committed to the peace deal. His governments are unlikely to be lifted with Maduro in popularity stems from his plans to cut taxes power. A glimmer of hope comes from the ongoing for corporations, dividends and other engagement between the ruling Socialist party and the profits for foreign boldhonders, aimed at opposition, who last met on 15 December to discuss boosting FDI. However, these cuts could resolving the economic and political crisis. also limit the ability of the government to plug the deficit and stay within fiscal targets domestically. 13