Global Custodian Fall 2018 | Page 59

[ M A R K E T custodians provided it makes economic sense or leads to material improvements in the existing service offerings. “If two custodians decide to merge simply to acquire scale, clients are not necessar- ily going to be happy,” says a securities “M&A is viewed by some insiders as a possible solution.” services’ executive. “If a merger results in that custodian offering new products, services and giving customers greater geographical exposures, then clients are going to be more positive and receptive to the transaction.” However, consolidation at sub-cus- todians is rife with potential problems and can occasionally test the patience of broker-dealer and global custodian clients. “Clients support competition and they do not want to be held hostage to a quasi-dominant or monopolistic provider in a single market,” says one expert. The senior executive agrees, adding M&A at sub-custodians can result in customers withdrawing business if they feel there is excessive concentration risk following a takeover. R E V I E W Despite this, clients do tend to be more tolerant about M&A among sub-custo- dians in provincial markets. “In smaller markets, clients are pragmatic that their providers may exit or local custodians may merge because the businesses are not always profitable. They are not happy about it when it happens, but they rec- ognise it is inevitable sometimes. Having concentration risk to a single provider in a small provincial market where client activity is negligible is very different in the grand scheme of things to having total exposure to a lone provider in a mid-sized regional market,” says the expert. The big picture While there was speculation and media conjecture about the possibility of a re- surgence in European bank mega mergers during summer 2018, custody was prob- ably not a priority talking point in any of those boardroom discussions. “Custody – at some of the larger universal banks – accounts for a small percentage – say a few percent of total company revenues. It is not, and has never been, the primary motivator for two large banks to join forc- es but an offshoot,” says the expert. Even so, the appetite for mergers generally at the majority of large banks and market regulators is not strong, with | C U S T O D I A N M & A ] memories still scarred by some of the more notorious pre-crisis buyouts, most notably RBS’ catastrophic acquisition of ABN Amro, a decision which left the UK taxpayer shouldering losses of £45 billion and soured public perceptions of banking more broadly. While a mega-merger is not an improbable feat, M&A activity - should it happen - is likely to be confined to sin- gle or regional market providers. “A merger between two large equals is doubtful. The primary M&A activity happening today at custodians are bolt-on “In extremis, some banks may decide to exit custody without even finding a new buyer.” acquisitions. This may be a custodian purchasing a front-office outsourcing system to add to their existing middle and back office capabilities or obtaining an equity stake or ownership in a FinTech or RegTech company. Post-crisis constraints and prudential regulation have made it harder for custodians to make large acquisitions,” says the securities services executive. Fall 2018 globalcustodian.com 59