GAUTENG
COMMENT, by Pete Bower
MAGAZINE
HOW TO MAKE YOUR PLOT PROFITABLE
Vol 17 No 4
April 2016
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FRONT COVER
Two members of the Riverpark branch
of the SA Pony Club negotiate a water
hazard during the annual Childrens’
Hunt at the Inanda Country Base.
See Page 12.
Planning ahead
B
y about July, oceanographers studying the central Pacific Ocean
will have a pretty good idea on how the temperature of that vast
body of seawater is going to behave over the ensuing six to ten
months.
If they predict that the temperature will rise, they'll be telling us in the southern
hemisphere to prepare for another dry summer ~ an El Nino effect. If they believe the
temperature will be lower, they'll be telling us to prepare for a wet, or at least a
normal, summer ~ a La Nina effect.
By about July, of course, we in South Africa will be in the full swing of winter. Endless
cloudless days of bright sunshine followed by bitterly cold cloudless nights in which
pipes freeze up and frost hammers vegetables, flowers and grassland alike.
(And in time, this dry brown grassland will turn black as the veld fire season gets into
full swing. But that’s another story.)
By about July, too, the effects of this season's drought will have started to be felt
throughout the food supply chain. In the shops market forces will mean customers will
be dealing with higher prices. In the ports, by about July, ships will start arriving to
discharge the millions of tons of maize, wheat and other grains that South Africa will
have to buy to cover for the shortfall created by this season's drought. Maize and grains
that will be bought on international markets and paid for in Rands, which considering
the value of the currency has deteriorated by 25% in the past year (and heaven only
knows where it will be four months from here…) will make it very expensive maize
indeed.
There may be temporary or even chronic shortages of certain commodities.
Consumers of all classes will find that their salaries don't go as far as they used to and
cuts to luxuries such as dining out, holidays and entertainment may have to be made.
For the poor and unemployed, of course, the effect of rising food prices will be doubly
devastating and markedly higher prices coupled with possible shortages make foodrelated riots a distinct possibility.
That, in a nutshell, is how the situation looks. You can, of course, choose to do nothing
and simply ride out whatever the effects of the drought are for you, your family and
your plot.
Or you can use the intelligence you will glean from the Pacific oceanographers in
about July to plan ahead and prepare for whatever next season throws at you.
For your family this should at the very least entail planning a vegetable garden, if you
don't already have one, to foresee the needs of the kitchen and in so doing make you
at least partially independent of the high-priced supermarkets.
And as you live on a smallholding and probably have space to spare, planting a little
extra for use by your staff, and as a donation to the needy, will be a sensible thing to
do and give you a warm feeling of goodwill to boot.
If you have livestock of any kind, the intelligence you glean in about July should
inform any decision you may need to make concerning stocking numbers and feeding
regimens.
If another dry summer is expected it may be worthwhile cutting back on the number
of animals you keep. You may need to sell off all but the very best to ensure you can
get by with limited grazing or expensive, scarce, bought-in fodder.
Another strategy will be to buy in non-perishable feed such as hay earlier than you
normally would, establishing your own contingency fodder bank, to s YH [