TSA In Conference
Conversation
2018
In pursuit of excellence
WITH ITS UNSTINTING SUPPORT FOR PROCESS SAFETY AND THE OFFER OF STRONG AND PRACTICAL SUPPORT TO THE
INDUSTRY AND ITS MEMBERS, THE TANK STORAGE ASSOCIATION’S 2018 CONFERENCE SHARED KNOWLEDGE, FACTS AND
BEST PRACTICE
Demand for refined products
A step change in managing cyber
expected to hold in the medium term security risks
and to mildly decline in the long term As connectivity increases between systems for industrial control and
With ‘fingers in many pies’, IHS Markit is well-placed to provide industry
insights and analytics. Opening the conference John Leavens, who started
his oil career at Shell’s Stanlow refinery, is now IHS Markit’s director of oil
markets, midstream and downstream.
Marine fuels
•
As the IMO implementation date approaches with an expected steep
demand increase for compliant fuels, stockpiling of gasoil and low
sulphur fuels is possible
• Beyond 2020, a strong adoption of scrubbers and acceptance of new
0.50%S fuels is expected to reverse the HFO demand decrease
• A refinery residue surplus around 200,000 b/d is expected in 2020 –
with potential impact on storage tanks. Temporarily stranded, heavy
sulphur marine fuels might need to be stored whilst awaiting an outlet
Independent fuel suppliers and traders could increase blending of new
marine fuels hybrids in tank farms
• IMO change to bring short-term respite to European refineries, but long-
term pressure remains and will result in lower crude runs
Why aren’t the marine and refining industries better prepared? asked a
member of the audience. Massive costs and no incentives have led shippers
not to install scrubbers at a million pounds plus, whilst a very disruptive
refining environment again has led refiners to think carefully before spending
billions, with both sectors waiting years to see a return on investment.
business, through the internet, remote access and cloud services, this
will provide a much greater potential attack space. Sarabjit Purewal,
principal specialist inspector at the Health & Safety Executive,
reported that the average time to detect cyber intrusion into a
corporate network is months.
Looking at better ways to manage cyber security risks in
vulnerable industrial control and safety systems, HSE has conducted
field trials with eight companies. Finishing in May 2018, a draft
report has now been shared with trade bodies and following
comment, the HSE’s operational guidance will be updated.
“We want industry to take the lead and to assess how to better
manage their risks,” said Sarabjit.
“And to ask, if something happened to your company today,
would you be able to recover?”
www.ncsc.gov.uk/guidance/10-steps-cyber-security
Road fuels
•
Improved fuel economy in conventional and hybrid vehicles is expected
to displace more road fuel demand than electric vehicles
Gasoline: a temporary come-back pending greater penetration of
electric and other alternative vehicle types. IHSM expects exports to fall
back slightly (on lower European production), with imports remaining
constant. Up to 2040, gasoline trade levels expected to progressively decline,
with African region expected to become the largest outlet for export.
Road diesel: As European governments firm up on reversal of pro-diesel
policies, a sharp decline in the share of new diesel passenger car registrations
is expected. The diesel/gasoil pool has seen massive increase in trade volume
with both imports and exports increasing rapidly. Imports are projected to
peak before declining slowly by 2040.
Jet: demand expected to grow a modest rate. Heavy fuel oil continued
decline in inland demand partly off-sets a gradual recovery in bunker
demand after 2020. The outlook for jet/kerosene is for increased imports
(driven by increased demand for air travel) with exports remaining constant.
Fuel oil: Long term forecast is for similar trade volumes to today as
European produced volumes replace Russian volumes.
Overall storage activities are expected to experience stable market in
the long term.
20 Fuel Oil News | November 2018
Attracting much attention on the Stopford Energy and Environment
stand was this fantastic Lego terminal complete with tanks and a
sea-going tanker which was won by one lucky TSA attendee!