FEAS Yearbook FEAS Yearbook 2014 | Page 32

FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES ANNUAL REPORT JUNE 2013 BELGRADE STOCK EXCHANGE Albeit the recovery made, estimated 2013 unemployment rate of over 24% still remains a major social concern and together with large fiscal deficit and public debt constitute key vulnerabilities, which joined together with low foreign direct investments, decline in bank lending activity, growth of corporate non- performing loans pose significant challenges and undermine overall Serbia’s growth potential. Consumption declined by 1,2% in 2013. Year-on-year inflation in 2013 saw a downward trend attributable to restrictive monetary policy measures, low domestic demand, lower costs of raw materials in food production, and the relative stability of the foreign exchange market. In order to unlock growth potentials capital markets of Western Balkans and specially Serbian capital market require new approach to the role of capital market. Further development of capital markets of Western Balkans remains limited by extremely low liquidity and fragmentation. Harmonization of legal framework also add to the barrier preventing big players from coming and joining the game in this region. In order to reduce external and domestic vulnerabilities a comprehensive package of structural reforms and ambitious fiscal consolidation are urgent to prevent further decline and unlock Serbia’s growth potential. Immediate implementation of these measures remain crucial to tackle poverty issues and other challenges. Key macroeconomic indicators 2013* 2005 5,4 2006 3,6 2007 5,4 2008 3,8 2009 -3,5 2010 1,0 2011 1,6 2012 -1,5 Q1 2013 3,0 Q2 2013 0,6 Q3 2013 3,7 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Real GDP growth (in %) 1) Consumer prices (in %, relative to the same month 17,7 6,6 11,0 8,6 6,6 10,3 7,0 12,2 11,2 9,8 4,9 2,2 1,6 a year earlier) 2) NBS foreign exchange reserves (in EUR million) 4.921 9.020 9.634 8.162 10.602 10.002 12.058 10.914 11.844 10.673 10.444 10.298 10.362 Exports (in EUR million) 3)8) 5.329 6.948 8.687 10.157 8.478 10.070 11.472 11.913 2.934 3.511 4.036 1.355 1.282 - growth rate in % compared to a year earlier 19,1 30,4 25,0 16,9 -16,5 18,8 13,9 3,8 17,1 17,3 31,9 22,4 17,3 -9.612 -11.970 -16.016 -18.843 -13.404 -14.643 -16.627 -17.211 -4.077 -4.443 -4.638 -1.655 -1.560 Imports (in EUR million) 3)8) - growth rate in % compared to a year earlier 0,7 24,5 33,8 17,6 -28,9 9,2 13,6 3,5 0,9 3,0 9,9 6,3 8,0 Current account balance 4)8) (in EUR million) -1.778 -2.356 -5.053 -7.054 -1.910 -1.887 -2.870 -3.155 -651 -296 -166 -113 -54 as % of GDP -8,8 -10,1 -17,7 -21,6 -6,6 -6,7 -9,1 -10,5 -8,9 -3,8 -2,0 20,8 20,9 18,1 13,6 16,1 19,2 23,0 23,9 24,1 20,1 Unemployment according to the Survey (in %) 5) Wages (average for the period, in EUR) 204,0 274,8 350,3 369,6 330,9 323,6 362,9 363,9 370,8 394,8 384,5 382,6 386,9 0,7 -1,7 -1,1 -1,9 -3,3 -3,5 -4,1 -5,7 -6,2 -5,3 -5,6 RS budget deficit/surplus (in % of GDP) 6) Consolidated fiscal result (in % of GDP) 1,1 -1,5 -1,9 -2,6 -4,5 -4,7 -4,9 -6,5 -4,7 -4,9 -6,1 52,2 37,7 31,5 29,2 34,7 44,5 48,2 60,0 63,3 61,9 61,7 62,1 62,2 RS public debt, (external + internal, in % of GDP) 6)7) RSD/USD exchange rate (average, in the period) 66,87 67,03 58,39 55,76 67,47 77,91 73,34 88,12 84,61 85,90 86,20 83,74 84,47 RSD/USD exchange rate (end of period) 72,22 59,98 53,73 62,90 66,73 79,28 80,87 86,18 87,43 87,41 84,89 83,20 83,73 RSD/EUR exchange rate (average, in the period) 82,99 84,11 79,96 81,44 93,95 103,04 101,95 113,13 111,70 112,15 114,18 114,19 114,06 RSD/EUR exchange rate (end of period) 85,50 79,00 79,24 88,60 95,89 105,50 104,64 113,72 111,96 114,17 114,60 114,01 114,64 MEMORANDUM: GDP (in EUR million) 20.306 23.305 28.468 32.668 28.952 27.968 31.472 29.601 7.353 7.791 8.175 *source the National Bank of Serbia www.nbs.rs 1) At constant prices of previous year. 2) Retail prices until 2006. 3) Trade with Montenegro is registered within relevant transactions as of 2003. 4) In accordance with BPM 5, a portion of estimated remittances was transferred from the financial account to the current account. 5) Source: Labour Force Survey, Statistical Office. 6) Source: MoF for public debt and NBS for estimated GDP. 7) Gouverment securities at nominal value. 8) As of 1 January 2010, the Statistical Office, according to UN recommendations, applies the general trade system which is a broader concept and includes all goods entering/exiting the country’s economic territory, apart from goods in transit. The Statistical Office Key Information Contacts National Bank of Serbia www.nbs.rs Securities and Exchange Commission www.sec.gov.rs Central Securities Depository and Clearing House www.crhov.rs Ministry of Economy and Regional Development www.mfp.gov.rs/?change_lang=en CONTACT INFORMATION Contact Name Ms. Marija Babic PAGE 32 E-mail [email protected] Website www.belex.co.rs published comparable data for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Previous years are disseminated under a special trade system. 9) NBS estimate.