FEAS Yearbook FEAS Yearbook 2012 | Page 122

FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES ANNUAL REPORT JUNE 2012 ZAGREB STOCK EXCHANGE CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK In the period until 1 July 2013 all EU member states are to ratify the Treaty finally making Croatia an EU member state. After winning the parliamentary elections on 4 December, the centre-left coalition formed the Government, having sat on opposition benches for eight years. The new Government faces a heavy task of curbing economic recovery amid unfavourable developments in the environment. In Q1 2012 we expect investors to focus primarily on news from the economic and political scene, to be more exact, developments in the euro area, and to a lesser degree on companies’ fundamentals. Macroeconomic outlook for the majority of CEE countries is not rosy (except for Poland) due to their high dependence on exports to euro area markets. Therefore, equity markets will not receive support from this side. Despite relatively favourable internal factors of some markets, we expect the external influences to prevail, pushing down all indices in the region. Risk aversion and investor reluctance fuelled by the European debt crisis is expected to continue in the domestic market in 2012. Therefore, we do not expect significant changes or increase in turnover until the improvement in the economic situation occurs. Investors will surely monitor all the moves of the new Government. The possible privatisations of state-owned companies due to the public finance situation could bring some life and optimism to the Zagreb Stock Exchange in 2012, provided they are carried out through the stock exchange.* * Raiffeisenbank Austria d.d. Economic Research Department Key Information Contacts Croatian Agency for Supervision of Financial Services www.hanfa.hr Ministry of Finance www.mfin.hr Croatian Government www.vlada.hr Croatian National Bank www.hnb.hr PAGE 120