ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 7

EU28 & EFTA3 Monthly Car Sales Trends to September 2016

.

The successive rise in new car sales in Europe came to an abrupt end in July with sales falling 1.8%. Whilst this seemed to have been little
more than a timing issue with August sales - the third highest year on year growth for 2016, there are now clear signs of a slow down across
Europe. The volatility of sales in markets like Germany and France, both of whom saw sales drop again in October 2016 by 5.6% and 4.0%
respectively followed by the sudden peaks, are typical indicators of pushed sales.
Whilst most OEMs are continuing to see new car sales grow year to date, the rate of growth has declined sharply and even reve rsed for some
who are now seeing falling sales year on year. With pushed sales become more apparent it would appear that a number of OEMs were
ambitiously expecting new car sales to continue the upward momentum when setting their full year targets.
Taking the economic uncertainty into consideration, we have moved our full year forecast down by almost 1% putting the EU28 set to end
2016 with total car sales of 14.8 million units (15.27m including the EFTA3). This puts the combined EU28 and EFTA3 sales up 7.6% over
1.80

Total EU28+EFTA3

17.5%

EU28 & EFTA3 Year on Year change

1.60

12.5%
1.40
1.20

7.5%

1.00
2.5%
0.80
0.60

(2.5%)

0.40
(7.5%)
0.20

Sep 16

Jul 16

Aug 16

Jun 16

May 16

Apr 16

Mar 16

Feb 16

Jan 16

Dec 15

Oct 15

Nov 15

Sep 15

Aug 15

Jul 15

Jun 15

Apr 15

May 15

Mar 15

Jan 15

Feb 15

Dec 14

Nov 14

Oct 14

Sep 14

Jul 14

Aug 14

Jun 14

Apr 14

May 14

Mar 14

Feb 14

Jan 14

Dec 13

Oct 13

Nov 13

Sep 13

Aug 13

Jul 13

Jun 13

May 13

Apr 13

Mar 13

Jan 13

(12.5%)

Feb 13

0.00

Source: ACEA

European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3

6

YoY movement in monthly sales

EU28 & EFTA3 (Excl. Malta & Cyprus)
Total Passenger Car Sales Millions

2015. However we have also reduced out forecasts for 2017 where we now expect sales to rise by just 5.1%.