ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 6

European Unemployment and Economic Sentiment Indicator

.

Employment levels are set to rise this year by the fastest level since 2008
(+1.4%). However the scale of growth is merely an indication of just how

35

many jobs were lost during the economic crisis and the labour market still

30

has a way to go before it has fully recovered.

Unemployed percentage of workforce

Economic Sentiment Indicator - Long term average

25

130

20

One interesting fact to consider, is that whilst there has been a populist
120

move against immigration, from within or without the EU, unemployment is
still falling. However according to numerous reports and the Hecksher-Ohlin
110

model, advanced economies with a production reliance on highly skilled

15
10
5
-

workforce see the wage share of low skilled workers reducing and this seems
100

to be an underlying driver in the rise of nationaism and protectionist
preferences.

Economic Sentiment Indicator - Long term average
120

90

The UK has already seen a political backlash against globalisation with the

110

referendum result, whilst the other major European countries80 are still

100

debating the issue. Despite this, it is the UK which has seen largest fall in
economic sentiment since the June referendum, down 2.4 points.
By
70

80

70
60

Sep-06
Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-06
Sep-08
Nov-08
Mar-07
Jan-09
Mar-09
Sep-07
May-09
Jul-09
Mar-08
Sep-09
Nov-09
Sep-08
Jan-10
Mar-10
Mar-09
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-09
Sep-10
Nov-10
Mar-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
Sep-10
May-11
Mar-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Mar-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
May-13
Mar-14
Jul-13
Sep-13
Sep-14
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-15
Mar-14
May-14
Sep-15
Jul-14
Sep-14
Mar-16
Nov-14
Jan-15
Sep-16
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16

comparison the EU has been almost stable, dropping just 0.1 points. Some of

90

the UK fall in ESI may be due to the increasing uncertainty of what
a post
60
Brexit UK will actually look like and how it will operate in the international

markets. The longer the delay in invoking article 50 and the more confusion
surrounding trade agreements continue, the more likely that the established

EU

France

Germany

Italy

Portugal

Spain

United Kingdom

Source: European Commission

political will may just retain power in the other member states.

European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3

5