ExpertEye European Automotive Report Q3 2016 | Page 21

Top 10 Makes are expected to slow down but 2016 growth is still on target to stay above 16.5%. But next year we 3 Month expect only low double digit growth of around 12% which means Italy should remain just behind RV% Change France as Europe’s fourth largest car market. Commercial vehicle sales have remained strong and MARKET AVERAGE 37.1 +0.5% shot up 47.9% In October and should end 2016 40% above 2015 levels. Like cars this is expected to LAND ROVER 45.3 +0.6% AUDI 42.9 -1.1% M INI 42.3 -1.0% JAGUAR 42.3 +1.0% BM W 41.1 +0.2% fall back next year to a low double digit growth. RVs have been rising strongly and steadily over the last 24 months making Italy one of the last European markets to recover from the downturn in RVs caused by the original economic crisis. We JEEP 41.1 +0.3% believe there may be room for a modest 0.5% to 1% rise over the next twelve months but this is ALFA ROM EO 39.9 +1.4% highly dependent on the results of the referendum and any potential subsequent general election. VOLKSWAGEN 39.3 -0.1% M ASERATI 39.2 +0.0% HONDA 39.0 +0.1% Whilst it may seem counterintuitive we suspect a political upset could cause values to rise as a result of nationalistic pride which could result in a circa 2.5-3% rise in values but this clearly Top 10 Segments carries some risks. But the threat of a fall now seems less likely than previously thought and at worst any drop would be limited to a percent or two. Like the rest of Europe Italians love SUVs and with the F Pace now launched Jaguar has seen 3 Month RV% Change MARKET AVERAGE 37.1 +0.5% further strong growth in RVs closing the gap to Mini and Audi and putting it closer to it’s table J3 Premium SUV 42.8 +0.0% topping stable mate Land Rover. Alfa Romeo has continued its domestic resurgence following a C2 M edium Premium 42.1 -1.0% J2 Compact SUV 41.7 -0.1% J1 Small SUV 40.6 +0.2% D2 Large Premium 40.5 +0.0% J4 Luxury SUV 40.2 +0.4% C1 M edium 39.5 +0.3% M 2 Large M PV 38.8 +0.4% E1 Executive 38.5 +1.0% M 1 Small M PV 38.4 +0.7% 7.9% increase last quarter with a 1.4% rise this quarter moving it up to seventh place. With medium premium models ageing they have slipped a little this quarter enabling the premium SUVs to grab the top spot but that aside the rest of the segments retain the status quo. Source: ExpertEye AG European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3 20