2010 01 2010 05 2010 09 2011 01 2011 05 2011 09 2012 01 2012 05 2012 09 2013 01 2013 05 2013 09 2014 01 2014 05 2014 09 2015 01 2015 05 2015 09 2016 01 2016 05 2016 09
Germany – Healthy growth still forecast .
The very strong real GDP growth in the first quarter of 0.7 % slowed to just 0.4 % in quarter 2 after adjusting for seasonality and working days . With employment continuing to rise and improving household incomes quarter 3 is expected to show similar moderate growth .
Immigration continues to see considerable amounts of government spending helping the overall economy grow . However with the number of immigrants around 20 % lower than previously reported , according to the European Commission ’ s Autumn Statement and plans to stagger their integration into the labour force they are not expected to disrupt the downward trend in unemployment .
Economic Forecasts 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP growth (%. yoy ) |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
Inflation (%. yoy ) |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Unemployment (%) |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
Public budget balance (% of GDP ) |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
Gross public debt (% of GDP ) |
71.2 |
68.1 |
65.7 |
63.1 |
Current account balance (% of GDP ) |
8.5 |
9.0 |
8.7 |
8.5 |
RV Index : 36 months / 90,000 kms |
120 |
Europe Average |
Germany |
115 |
110
Net exports continue to be a key feature of the German economy whilst the unwinding of the deflationary impact of falling oil prices should help to lift 105 inflation over the next couple of years .
100
Like France , Germany has seen new car sales growth slow in the second half
95 of the year with new cars falling in July and October and to the end of October sales were up just 4.9 % for the year . Whilst we expect some further 90 growth it looks unlikely that Germany will end 2016 much above 5.2 % for the year . However with sterling very weak we expect 2017 to see an increase in day registrations which will boost sales up by around 7.1 % next year Commercial Vehicles . CVs have also seen a slowdown in growth and by the end of October they remain up 8.1 % for the YTD following a 15 % fall in the month .
Sources : European Commission – Economic Forecasts ExpertEye AG - RV Index Bowkett Auto Consulting Ltd - Forecast vehicle sales
European Automotive Report - 2016 Quarter 3 17