From The Marketing Side
School Supply Companies Overall Change in Sales
2015
2016
2017
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
5%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
2%
2%
1%
0
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
Source: School Market Research Institute Inc.
Predicting the Future
No one in management expects
you to predict the future. However,
they do expect you to be aware of your
company’s sales history and market
conditions. Therefore, the key to a
good forecast lies in doing the re-
search necessary to develop the data
that supports your forecast. There are
several factors to consider including
your sales history, your marketing plan,
and current and anticipated market
conditions. Market conditions include
changes in enrollments, school staffing,
school spending, and federal education
policies.
The Advantages of
Quarterly Forecasting
Sales history is an important factor
because educators spend in relatively
predictable patterns. Weekly, even
monthly forecasts are the most difficult
to predict because many factors can al-
ter spending over short periods of time
including school closures as a result of
weather conditions, school holidays,
and school breaks. Quarterly forecasts
are more consistent. You can make a
quarterly forecast and hold it for the
full thirteen weeks of the quarter. It
should enable you to keep your compa-
ny running smoothly in spite of the fact
that the quarterly forecast may vary
from the actuals from week to week
Market Conditions
for Consideration
If you are making a change to your
marketing plan, each change should
have an anticipated impact on sales. If
your marketing plan is essentially the
same as the prior year, then changes in
sales must come from changes in the
marketplace.
Historically, the birth rate has
been the most significant factor in
forecasting enrollments. However,
in recent years the birth rate has
declined. For example, in 2000 the
birth rate was 14.4 per 1,000 of pop-
ulation. In 2015, the birth rate was
12.4 per 1,000 population. That is a
decline of just under 14%.
According to the Projections of Ed-
ucation Statistics to the Year 2026, the
total elementary and secondary school
enrollment increased 3% from 2001 to
2014, from 54.0 million to 55.6 million.
The projection for total elementary
and secondary school enrollment from
2014 to 2026 is an increase of 2% to
56.8 million spread over 12 years.
Total elementary and secondary
teachers increased 4% from 2001 to
essentials | www.edmarket.org 7