Essentials Magazine Essentials Fall 2018 | Page 7

From The Marketing Side School Supply Companies Overall Change in Sales 2015 2016 2017 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: School Market Research Institute Inc. Predicting the Future No one in management expects you to predict the future. However, they do expect you to be aware of your company’s sales history and market conditions. Therefore, the key to a good forecast lies in doing the re- search necessary to develop the data that supports your forecast. There are several factors to consider including your sales history, your marketing plan, and current and anticipated market conditions. Market conditions include changes in enrollments, school staffing, school spending, and federal education policies. The Advantages of Quarterly Forecasting Sales history is an important factor because educators spend in relatively predictable patterns. Weekly, even monthly forecasts are the most difficult to predict because many factors can al- ter spending over short periods of time including school closures as a result of weather conditions, school holidays, and school breaks. Quarterly forecasts are more consistent. You can make a quarterly forecast and hold it for the full thirteen weeks of the quarter. It should enable you to keep your compa- ny running smoothly in spite of the fact that the quarterly forecast may vary from the actuals from week to week Market Conditions for Consideration If you are making a change to your marketing plan, each change should have an anticipated impact on sales. If your marketing plan is essentially the same as the prior year, then changes in sales must come from changes in the marketplace. Historically, the birth rate has been the most significant factor in forecasting enrollments. However, in recent years the birth rate has declined. For example, in 2000 the birth rate was 14.4 per 1,000 of pop- ulation. In 2015, the birth rate was 12.4 per 1,000 population. That is a decline of just under 14%. According to the Projections of Ed- ucation Statistics to the Year 2026, the total elementary and secondary school enrollment increased 3% from 2001 to 2014, from 54.0 million to 55.6 million. The projection for total elementary and secondary school enrollment from 2014 to 2026 is an increase of 2% to 56.8 million spread over 12 years. Total elementary and secondary teachers increased 4% from 2001 to essentials | www.edmarket.org 7