Emerging Markets Business Summer 2016 | Page 28

CUBA & IRAN: IS IT TIME TO INVEST? Whether or not the time is right to invest is largely a question of point of view—and of morals. Cigar Exports An air of celebration accompanied the historical meeting between US President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro in March 2016, but the reaction amongst Cuba’s cigar producers was likely to have been rather less enthusiastic. While trade between the two countries is expected to grow as sanctions begin to lift, restrictions dictate that Americans traveling to Cuba can take home just $100 worth of cigars. This means that cigar exports are not expected to grow significantly over the coming years. The question is, if US tobacco restrictions change, will Cuba be capable of ramping up production to meet demand? According to the Internacional Cubana de Taba‑ cos, the Communist country produced more than 134 million cigars last year, 75 percent was ex‑ ported — either legally or illegally. That number is expected to grow between two and three per‑ cent per—annum. 26  Emerging Markets Business  Summer 2016 • Issue No. 1