Education Sector Plan: Education for All: Embracing Change, Securing Finale | Page 70

Education for All: Embracing Change, Securing the Future
Table 12: Summary of programme expenditure, by programme area,
constant XCD thousands, 2016
1. Access and Participation
2. Curriculum and Assessment
3. Quality and Relevant Teaching and Learning
4. Professionalizing the Teaching Force
5. Knowledge Management for Decision Making
6. Leadership and Accountability
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Plan total
5,691 5,170 6,536 6,340 5,589 29,327
400 1,101 344 341 345 2,531
4,201 3,700 3,934 608 632 13,076
- 285 38 - - 323
373 481 164 132 127 1,278
- 226 36 20 17 298
TVET 6,885 8,009 7,712 5,134 1,490 29,230
Total 17,550 18,973 18,764 12,576 8,200 76,062
Source: GoSKN (2013d, 2014b, 2015, 2016, 2017), Nevis Island Administration (2012a, 2012b, 2013a, 2013b, 2014a, 2014b, 2015a, 2015b) and
IMF (2016).
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Access and Participation is the most costly of the six Programme Areas. This is expected as the price of expansion
comes with high recurrent and capital costs, as shown by the increase in operational costs of XCD $14.3 million over
the plan period. Programme costs related to Quality and Relevant Teaching and Learning are also relatively high, as
targets for improved quality and safety standards and strengthened student support services will necessitate capital
investments in infrastructure, increased recurrent expenditure in salaries for student support service personnel,
and a number of singular investments in special programmes to strengthen ICT integration and implement a
Quality Teaching and Learning Framework in schools, among others. While TVET is a cross-cutting theme and not a
programme area, it is included in Table 12 as the GoSKN has already made a significant financial commitment in this
area for the plan period, having received guaranteed financing from the CDB of XCD $29.2 million for the 2016–2020
TVET Enhancement Project.
Notably, the costs of programmes are more concentrated over the first three years of the plan. In addition to the
sizable costs associated with expansion of the system, this is a result of the significant initial investments that must
be made in Curriculum and Assessment, Quality and Relevant Teaching and Learning, Knowledge Management for
Decision Making, and Leadership and Accountability if the Federation is to lay the foundation to achieve improved
learning outcomes for all students, and enhance governance and efficiency in the system by the end of the plan period.
Additionally, it should be noted that a number of critical programme areas, such as Professionalizing the Teaching
Force and Leadership and Accountability, will contribute tremendously to improving and sustaining quality and
governance in the sector, but are not cost-intensive. This reality can be leveraged as needed in annual budgeting
processes.
5.2. Estimating plan financing
Calculations to estimate total government funding of the plan depend on three main factors:
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growth in GDP;
the share of the overall government budget in GDP; and
the share of the education budget within the government budget.
The following assumptions were used to estimate each of these factors:
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According to national and international estimates (IMF), GDP growth is estimated to decrease from 3.5%
in 2017 to 2.8% in 2021.
Based on IMF projections of estimated federal resources and budget data from the Ministry of Finance
(MoF), the share of government resources in GDP is expected to remain at its present value of 23%.
Additionally, federal recurrent expenditure is projected to remain stable at 66.3% for 2019, and federal
capital expenditure is expected to remain at its projected level of 19% for the same time period.
The share of education recurrent expenditure in overall government recurrent expenditure is assumed to
remain at 19.4% throughout the plan period, as this share has been relatively steady over the recent period,
remaining between 18.6% (2015) and 20.5% (2014 and 2016).
Guided by these assumptions, the resources available for recurrent spending on education are summarized in
Table 13. On the basis of these projected costs and the estimated available financing for plan implementation , the last
section outlines the plan financing gap.