5 . Cost and financing
This chapter presents key data from the SKN ESP Simulation Model , which was developed with technical support from IIEP-UNESCO to aid in establishing feasible plan targets by projecting the costs associated with implementing the strategic Programme Areas presented in Chapter 4 . The cost of plan implementation depends on several factors , which can be grouped as follows :
❚ The main policy objectives . Significant plan costs are associated with policy objectives that seek to expand as well as improve quality and relevance in the system , as indicated by the enrolment and internal efficiency targets in the Access and Participation programme area ( see Programme Implementation Matrix 1 ), as well as the targets for stronger quality and safety standards for institutions and enhanced student support services in the Quality and Relevant Teaching and Learning programme area ( see Programme Implementation Matrix 3 ).
❚ Assumptions about the cost of the required resources ( e . g . salaries , operational costs , etc .). These costs are estimated using the St . Kitts and Nevis Estimates for the Year 2017 Volumes I and II and the Nevis Island Administration Recurrent and Capital Budget Estimate of Expenditure and Revenue for the Year 2017 by category of cost . Notably , the cost of salaries is projected to grow slowly , in line with the pace of GDP per capita ( see Table 13 ).
❚ Assumptions about economic growth . Recent values and projections of GDP are extracted from the IMF World Economic Outlook Database , as of October 2016 . The projection for GDP growth was estimated at 3.5 % for 2016 and 2017 , decreasing to 2.8 % in 2021 . Because GDP growth is estimated to outpace population growth , which is projected to remain stable at 1.2 % over the plan period , this should lead to an increase of national wealth measured per capita ( see Table 8 ).
Having outlined the factors involved in projecting plan costs and financing , the following sections provide detailed information on : ( i ) the estimated cost of the plan , ( ii ) the estimated financing of the plan , and ( iii ) the estimated plan financing gap that must be managed to meet policy goals and targets .
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5.1 . Cost of the plan
The following tables present the overall cost of the plan , including the share of costs associated with various subsectors and programme areas . All costs are expressed in constant XCD prices for 2016 .
Table 11 presents the estimated costs by sub-sector for each year of the plan . Recurrent and capital costs are included , and programme costs are excluded .
Table 11 : Estimates of yearly cost ( recurrent and capital included , programmes excluded ) by level of education , constant XCD thousands , 2016
Education sub-sector |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
ECD |
8,929 |
10,416 |
10,895 |
11,390 |
11,904 |
Primary |
24,752 |
25,782 |
26,841 |
28,230 |
29,548 |
Secondary |
41,090 |
40,382 |
40,607 |
40,817 |
42,297 |
Post-secondary |
4,196 |
4,206 |
4,122 |
4,007 |
3,853 |
Special education |
1,991 |
2,221 |
2,453 |
2,706 |
2,963 |
Tertiary |
14,240 |
13,783 |
13,097 |
12,341 |
11,520 |
Administration |
16,172 |
16,013 |
15,933 |
15,989 |
16,171 |
Total |
111,371 |
112,803 |
113,949 |
115,479 |
118,256 |
Source : GoSKN ( 2013d , 2014b , 2015 , 2016 , 2017 ), Nevis Island Administration ( 2012a , 2012b , 2013a , 2013b , 2014a , 2014b , 2015a , 2015b ) and SKN ESP Simulation Model , IIEP .
The annual increase in costs in the ECD , primary , and special education sub-sectors is a result of forthcoming efforts to widen access to quality ECD and special education services , and assumptions regarding the slightly increasing salary costs in line with projected GDP per capita growth . The increasing recurrent and capital cost at the secondary level between 2018 and 2021 are a result of forthcoming efforts to reduce the dropout rate in Form 4 , which will necessitate structural expansion at institutions and additional personnel .
Table 12 below captures both the annual and total costs associated with implementing each programme area .