An Analysis of the
Current EB-5 Market
in China
Despite the current uncertainties, visa backlog
and potential changes to the EB-5 legislation and
developments in the Chinese constitutional law,
there is still a strong interest for Chinese investors to
immigrate to the United States.
By Winnie Ng
M
ainland China-born investors have claimed about 80 percent of the 10,000
EB-5 visas available each year since 2012, surpassing all other countries
combined, according to statistics from the U.S. Department of State. The
popularity of the program has been challenged by a few obstacles in recent
months: the projected visa wait time, uncertainty of EB-5 legislation and recent
changes in Chinese constitutional law.
MAIN ISSUE: VISA BACKLOG
Although mainland China-born investors have been subject to a visa backlog since
May 2015, this did not stop Chinese investors from investing in 2015 and 2016
because the projected wait time between the time EB-5 investors file their I-526
petition and the time investors can apply for their conditional green card was
only about two years.
However, if the current 10,000-visa quota and allocation system of one visa per
applicant (instead of one visa per investor as many believe is the original intent
of Congress) do not change, the current wait will likely become eight, nine or 10
years or longer for new investors who file.
On April 23, 2018, Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Controls Office at the U.S.
Department of State, projected that the backlog will eventually grow to 15 years
for new investors. Although there are many factors that will likely cause the
wait time to decrease, this projection caused a strong reaction to the Chinese
market. Since this shocking announcement, many Chinese agents have started
to focus on marketing other countries’ investment immigration programs
instead of EB-5.
While many people in the EB-5 industry understand that lobbying efforts may
succeed and the final EB-5 legislation may provide for some type of relief and
clear the current visa backlog in the future, the current projected wait time has
caused investors who are already in the waiting line to panic and new investors
to hesitate about investing.
Many investors who have already filed their I-526 petitions fear that the their
dependent children will age out if the wait becomes 10 years or longer. If so, then
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