TOP ECONOMISTS
SCOTT W. BARNHART
Florida Atlantic University. The firm has
used RIMS II and IMPLAN input-output
models to estimate the job creation
impacts in support of I-924 regional
center applications, I-924A and I-829 job
reporting for dozens of regional centers
resulting in more than 450 job creation
and TEA reports submitted to USCIS in
the EB-5 program. To date, the firm has
analyzed a wide variety of projects, from
destination resort hotels to large strategic
infrastructure projects, with capital
expenditures of more than $14.45 billion
with associated gross revenues of $9.72
billion and job creation estimates of over
260,000 jobs.
President
Barnhart Economic Services LLC
S
cott W. Barnhart is president of Barnhart
Economic Services LLC, a consulting
firm that employs three PhD economists
specializing in EB-5 and non-EB-5 economic
job creation studies, business plans and TEA
designations. Barnhart is also a co-owner of
Florida First Regional Center and an associate
professor of finance and the program director
of the Certified Financial Planner program at
WHAT TRENDS ARE YOU SEEING
IN THE EB-5 INDUSTRY?
We have seen a good number of non-
traditional projects including: franchise
restaurant chains, marine ports, power
generation (electrical, solar and biomass),
manufacturing facilities and oil production.
Restaurants have large multipliers, in the
range of 25-30 jobs per $1 million of gross
revenue, but they don’t always have real
estate assets as collateral as many lease
space. On the other hand, manufacturing
employment area analyses and regional
center business-operations plans. Carr has
lectured on issues related to EB-5 economic
and job impact studies and EB-5 project
business plans throughout the United States
and China. He was a member of the “Best
Practices Committee” for IIUSA in 2013
and has since 2014 been a member of
the IIUSA Public Policy Committee.
WHAT TRENDS ARE YOU SEEING
IN THE EB-5 INDUSTRY?
JEFFREY CARR
President & Senior Economist
Economic & Policy Resources
J
effrey Carr is president and senior economist
of Economic & Policy Resources and has more
than 35 years of experience as an economist,
business plan writer and analyst. At EPR, Carr has
completed more than 225 assignments under
the EB-5 program in 46 states and territories.
These include economic-job impact studies for
regional center applications and investor petition
filings, EB-5 project business plans, targeted
As visa numbers become a larger issue
for the industry, we are seeing mostly
smaller projects, with their attendant
smaller EB-5 capital raises, coming into
the EB-5 marketplace. New projects
also appear to be trending more toward
niche or special markets that are of more
interest to potential investors outside of
the Chinese mainland. This is likely to
continue until a direct or indirect solution
to the visa number problem for mainland
Chinese EB-5 investors is found. Project
developers also seem to be looking more
closely into projects that are located in
rural areas.
has smaller multipliers, but typically has
real estate and other assets in the case
of default. For some such non-traditional
projects there is no real estate to seize if a
default occurs, yet other assets have been
pledged as collateral.
ARE YOU SEEING ANY SIGNS
THAT THE COMMUNITY ARE
STARTING TO ADJUST TO
POSSIBLE TEA CHANGES?
Project managers ask about “potential new”
TEA areas thinking that certain locations
carry advantages. We are examining this
to better advise our clients on what to
look for in newly-defined urban distressed
locations. Regarding reforms, I wish to
see visa numbers expanded or not count
family members. Adjudication should also
be sped up. The current rate of up to two
years prohibits credible business decision-
making. Finally, I know the original intent of
the law, but TEAs should be eliminated or
abolished. A luxury hotel in a rural or very high
unemployment area may not be profitable.
However, the jobs will be created regardless
of location and hotel staff typically commute
from lower-income neighborhoods.
ARE YOU SEEING ANY SIGNS
THAT THE COMMUNITY ARE
STARTING TO ADJUST TO
POSSIBLE TEA CHANGES?
Since the Depar tment of Homeland
S e c u r i t y ’s p u b li c a ti o n fo r d r af t
regulations, it has become common for
prospective EB-5 projects to evaluate
TEAs based on both current law and at
least one alternative set of prospective
TEA rules, usually the most restrictive
of