Diplomatist Magazine DIplomatist September 2018 | Page 21

GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
T
he relation between US and Turkey have come under
increasing strain in past few weeks over the American
Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was arrested over links
to Fethullah Gulen, alleged by President Erdogan to be the
mastermind behind 2016-coup attempt. US President Donald
Trump is reportedly “frustrated” over Turkey for not releasing
Brunson and has threatened to impose additional sanctions.
On the other side, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
vowed to not cave in before the threats of US sanctions. He
issued a warning statement saying that if the US doesn’t
change its attitude then Turkey would start looking for other
alternatives. With both sides refusing to abate, mending
strained relations between the two NATO allies is going to
be a lot more complicated and diffi cult amid new economic
penalties.
Impact on Bilateral Trade
In 2016, , when Donald J Trump was announced as 45th
President of the United S
States, many analysts anticipated that
his relationship with his Turkish counterpart Erdogan would
be better than his former President Barack Obama, given their
common belief in populi
populism and nationalism. Both Trump and
Erdogan have immense power that they seek to enhance. In
fact, President Trump i in several occasions have h ailed the
“close friendship” he f formed with his Turkish counterpart
and welcomed its effor
efforts and commitment to fi ght against
terrorism in all forms. However, unpleasant issues like the
future of Syria; extradit
extradition request for exiled cleric Fethullah
Gulen; Americ
American sanction on Iran and their support
to Kurds have
h
fractured US-Turkey relations
severely. They were mended softly with loose
stitches
stitches, locking both in a “frenemy cycle”
– an ap
apt term to describe the two countries
relatio
relations in the 21st century. However,
the c controversial case of Pastor Brunson
has jeopardized
j
their bilateral ties to an
irre
irreparably extent.
The refusal of the Turkish court to
re
release Brunson have triggered Trump
t to double the import tariffs on Turkish
steel and aluminium. The Trump
administration have also imposed
sanctions against Turkish Minister
of Justice Abdulhamit Gul and
Minister of Interior Suleyman
Soylu, both of whom played
leading roles in the organizations
responsible for the arrest and
detention of Brunson. According
to Joshua Landis (a professor of
M
Middle East Studies at the University of
Oklahoma in Norman), for Trump, winning Brunson freedom
against Turkey is signifi cant to claim that his “strong-arm
tactics” are effective in the realm of foreign policy. But, for
Erdogan, US sanctions is stabbing Turkey on the back due
to which he decided not to be a pawn in the game controlled
by the Americans anymore. Erdogan, in an offi cial decree,
announced to boycott US electronic goods. As a retaliatory
measure to Trump’s double metal tariff on Turkey, Erdogan
slapped a hefty tax on imports of US passenger car to 120
percent, alcoholic drinks to 140 percent and leaf tobacco
to 60 percent. Various media also reported that tariffs were
increased on goods such as cosmetics, rice and coal.
The US is one of the major import and export partners
of Turkey. The major export product includes clothes,
electronics, automobile,
agricultural products.
Other products exported
from Turkey include
iron and steel, mineral
fuels and oil, precious
stones and tobacco. On
another hand, the major
import commodities
f o r Tu r k e y i n c l u d e
electrical equipment,
mechanical appliances,
optical instruments and
pharmaceutical products.
In 2016, the US
goods and services trade
with Turkey totalled an
estimated $22.4 billion.
Export was $12.5 billion;
import was $9.9 billion.
In last six months, their
bilateral trade reached
an estimate $5 billion, despite Turkey’s crumbling economy.
Although the amount of products affected by the tariffs of both
the countries are relatively small parts of the goods that they
trade, further US sanctions will defi nitely deteriorate their
bilateral trade and Turkish economy to an unpredictable level.
The Turkish Gross Domestic Product, which grew by
nine percent at one point under Erdogan’s leadership, is
witnessing serious economic instability and downfall. The
Turkish currency, lira, has lost about 40-45 per cent of its
value against the US dollar so far. The stock market has fallen
17 percent and there also have been a 40 percent decline in the
foreign investment. Under such circumstances, the US plan
to review Ankara’s duty-free access to their markets could
affect an additional $1.7 billion of Turkish exports.
The US administration has made it very clear that they
The US administration
has made it very clear
that they won’t make
any concession towards
Ankara unless it agrees
to release detained
Brunson instantly;
otherwise, even the
recent infl ux of cash
from Qatar will not save
Ankara’s economy.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 9 • September 2018, Noida • 21