Diplomatist Magazine DIplomatist September 2018 | Page 19

GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
to Trump’s claims on a wider access to the domestic market
“would result in wiping out a third of Canadian dairy farms in
Ontario or in Quebec” vi – which, based on federal estimates,
have already signifi cantly shrunk from 11.280 in 2016 to 10.951
in 2017. vii Although recent Trudeau’s statements suggest he is
not open to concede to any of Trump’s claims, he is likely to
eventually be persuaded to accept a fi nal agreement and contain
the damages. However, both Trump and Trudeau know that
whatever agreement will result from the ongoing negotiations,
it will have to be ratifi ed by the US Congress, and given that
any agreement might not be reached before October and that
polls show that looming mid-term elections will likely favour
the Democrats, the fate of the trade deal is yet to be written.
Trump himself admitted that Democrats are likely to take over
the House, which may boost the perceived POTUS weakness
and encourage Trudeau to procrastinate and call Trump’s bluff.
If the upcoming mid-term elections will result in a ‘blue wave’
and tables were turned, Trudeau could certainly take advantage
of a wider leeway to leverage on key issues.
Recently, the late Lord Palmerston’s adage that “nations
have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent
interests,” viii has been exhumed to stress how estab