GLOBAL CENTRE STAGE
The ongoing NAFTA renegotiation are certainly part of reshuffl ing , and whatever the outcome may be , its implications will not just heavily affect the trade relations between the North America countries , but also the wider geopolitical theatre .
Of all the criticisms one might have about the current US administration , we cannot but acknowledge that Trump has unmasked a certain background of hypocrisy in contemporary international relations . It might be , in fact , psychologically reassuring to continue deluding ourselves with the liberal dream of a stable international order where the divide between good and bad countries is clearly set , but this is far from current realities of international politics . On the contrary , today ’ s political trends across the West underscore the fact that that dream has broken down against an economic recovery that has come though belated and timid . The established institutions in which the West had placed its hope and commitment are not perceived anymore as capable to address people ’ s issues or of accommodating people ’ s interests . The crushing of that dream has produced a bewildering and frantic reshuffle of established certainties , which reverse the trend of shared international efforts and shift it towards shared national efforts . In other words , Western countries today appear reluctant at financing and committing to international institutions and have decided to take the reins of their future into their own hands . Trump has expressed such a trend the hard way , due to his personal exuberance and his disruptive communication strategy , but he has simply uncovered an already stewing Pandora ’ s Box . The ongoing NAFTA renegotiation are certainly part of such reshuffling , and whatever the outcome may be , its implications will not just heavily affect the trade relations between the North America countries , but also the wider geopolitical theatre .
So , why has NAFTA been dropped ? At first glance , the fact that the US pulled out of the agreement doesn ’ t look overly surprising considering Trump ’ s overall strategy . I will call it a ‘ go-brake-result ’ strategy . It seems , in fact , that we can identify a certain pattern in Trump ’ s policing so far , which often manifests itself with an initial incendiary statement — more often a tweet , a subsequent reassuring slowdown aimed at toning down the previous stance , and finally the achievement of the result which is often a compromise between the first and second stage . In other words , Trump ’ s ability simply consists of exploiting the chaos generated by contradictory statements and getting his hands on the prize while everyone still debates on his Twitter profile . Although the NAFTA affair is still in process , the same procedure seems to apply . In this instance , the apparent dismantlement of agreements perceived to be the symbol of past administrations depicted as not doing the US interests any good , seems to be fully consistent with Trump ’ s narrative of taking back control and putting Americans ’ first . The harsh aversion towards Canada embodies the ‘ go ’ phase , in which the disruptive decision of ripping NAFTA off reflected not only the profound divide with Trudeau , but also a symmetric re-alignment with Mexico and its new President Obrador , who is due to be sworn in this fall . The ‘ brake ’ effort is carried out by the actual negotiators , who have been trying these past few weeks to soften the respective Presidents ’ statements and reach a measured agreement , notwithstanding Trump ’ s invariably announced will to exclude Canada and replace NAFTA with the now agreed US-Mexico deal . While it is still too early to address the outcome of these negotiations , it projects clearly the US preference for bilateral agreements , on the assumption that negotiating directly with individual partners will prove more effective than participating at crowded tables where everyone ’ s interests will likely be diluted by compromises .
The thorny mantle of the negotiations has been recently de facto passed to the new Mexican President . Obrador has tried to reconcile with Trump after months in which the yeasty US-Mexico relations were dominated by issues such as ‘ the wall ’ and vitriolic accusations exchanged between Trump and Pena Nieto . However , that is easier said than done , considering how difficult a legacy Nieto is leaving behind . What many fear is that the hard approach adopted by Pena Nieto against Trump ' s claims might be replaced by a certain docility so far manifested by the Morena leader . Last July , Obrador sent Trump a letter in which he invited him
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 9 • September 2018 , Noida • 17