PERSPECTIVE
The US is escalating eff orts to contain rising China and
resurgent Russia- both which have leverage in South Asia. The
US Navy aims to station 60 percent of its surface ships in the
Indo-Pacifi c by 2019. China has commissioned 80 new ships
and submarines in the last 4 to 5 years with concentration in
the South China Sea. Chinese President Xi’s approach to the
UN through peace keeping eff orts; rise in fi nancial assistance;
continued eff orts in maintaining relationship with Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian PM Modi; covert but
active role in North Korea’s denuclearization eff orts -- these
all can be seen as an attempt to build China-centric world
order, replacing the old US-led order.
The Sino-Russian relationship is at newer heights. China
is in need for more co-operation and collaboration than
competition. India, China and Russia are part of a multifaceted
international state of aff airs that inspire them to engage with
each other.
The divergence between China and India in the last two
years -- with issues of boundary dispute; the Belt and Road
Initiative; Indian membership to the Nuclear Suppliers
Group; and China’s growing presence in South Asia and
the Indian Ocean region -- is slowly concluding with better
understanding after the informal Wuhan Summit between
China’s Xi and India’s Modi. India’s defense deals with
Russia; continued efforts to work together with China;
unceasing fuel supply with Iran; and strategic provision with
the US -- all are signs of the vital role that New Delhi plays.
India is gaining astute transformation in the last few years
both in global importance and with its “Neighborhood First
Policy”. The themes are connectivity, stronger co-operation,
broader contacts, infrastructure, tapping of hydro electric
power, managing and settling border issues. There are joint
challenges with Pakistan in measures and concrete steps
to counter terrorism and so that peace can tranquil in the
borders of India and Pakistan, which will widen prospects
for greater connectivity, co-operation through Afghanistan
to the central Asian nations. Cutting down of foreign forces
from Afghanistan and managing the consequences is yet
another challenge in South Asia where the UN, the US, China
and India have tremendous interests. The likelihood of an
Afghan-led reconciliation process within the frame work of
the Afghanistan constitution and internationally accepted
red-lines would best suit the dire situation. The sub-regional
grouping BIMSTEC is taking forward the connectivity
and co-operations agenda forward, thereby contributing to
reconstruction and reconciliation in the region. South East
Asian Nation, Myanmar is the India’s gateway for the latter’s
Look and Act East Policy, China’s gateway to the Indian
Ocean.
Hence, there seems to be an indication of the change in
the Old Order: the US is giving preferential interest to India
as a strategic partner in its South Asia Policy; the latter seems
to be embracing the “Strategic Rebalancing Policy”, even
as New Delhi wishes to become a leading power. India’s
political, security and expanding economic engagements-
with the US and other nations such as Australia, China, Iran,
Japan, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam- are more rewarding
than even before. While the changes are underway, it can be
disrupted if competition overtakes collaboration in the light
of strained Sino-US relationship.
South Asia needs to build a better future for all its member-
states placing priority on the 17 UN goals for a better world
by 2030 that would end poverty, fi ght inequality and stop
climate change.
The growing presence and positioning of India in
multilateral forums like SAARC, BIMSTEC, BRICS and
the IORA and its powerful observer status in ASEAN - is to
provide a sense of balance to China’s infl uence in the Indo-
Pacifi c. The South Asian nations co-operation, collaboration
and partnership to meet the purpose of the UN Charter,
Principles and Objectives that “aims to save subsequent
generations from terrorism and plague of war by preserving
international peace and security” is inevitable.
The APEC Summit held in Papua New Guinea on
17 November 2018, was attended by 21 Pacifi c nations.
The summit clearly displayed the tussle of infl uence and
geopolitical tensions between China and the withdrawing US.
The 13th East Asia Summit (EAM) was held in Singapore
on 14-15th November with the participation of 18 Heads
of State and Heads of Government including Indian PM
Modi- outlining the fact that the Indo-Pacifi c arena requires
international rules-based order, which needs to be followed
by all countries and the freedom of navigation of the seas. The
US backed Quad gently acquired momentum as a means to
balance China when Australia, India, Japan and the US met
on 15th November on the sidelines of EAM.
Conclusion
The coming century must be owned and enjoyed by
all. The “America First policy” of the US, the only global
power right now, should not undermine global commitments,
togetherness, trade protectionism, multilateralism and
globalization. When India is aspiring to be a leading power
and to become a permanent member of the UN Security
Council, New Delhi should lead the South Asian Nations
in supplementing the global body’s objectives through
multilateralism and globalization. It is a need of the moment
for South Asian to connect than to disconnect, unite than to
divide.
*Binoj Basnyat is a retired Army Major General, Nepal
Army. He is a Political and Security Analyst.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 10 • Oct-Nov 2018, Noida • 55