SPOTLIGHT
fraud and ethnic partisanship emerged from both sides.
However, it is not immediately clear whether the incumbent
government will retain the political structure suggested by
National Unity Government agreement.
A protracted dispute between the president Ashraf
Ghani and former governor of the Balkh province – Atta
Noor marked the beginning of another imminent political
competition. While Abdullah Ghani is committed to seeking
a re-election next year, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah
is yet to announce his decision. Ghani also introduced anti-
corruption reforms which seek to empower government
institutions over regional power-brokers and warlords. This
also led to an attempt to remove such individuals from
Afghanistan’s politics - including fi rst Vice President General
Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Noor.
In 2017, a brutal police crackdown on peaceful protestors
demanding security sector reform led to widespread public
protests and criticism by government offi cials. Amid this wave
of discontent, Atta Noor announced the creation of a 2019
electoral alliance - ‘Coalition for Salvation of Afghanistan’. It
includes Jamiat-e-Islami led by Foreign Minister Salahuddin
Rabbani and Atta Muhammad Noor, Jombesh-i-Mili
Islami led by Abdul Rashid Dostum and Hezb-e-Wahadat
Mardom led by Second Deputy Chief Executive Muhammad
Mohaqeq Afghani. Since its support base lies in minority
communities - the Tajiks, Uzbeks and a faction of Hazaras,
CSA might gather the necessary votes for an electoral win
and unite diff erent ethnic groups. However, the coalition faces
challenges from intra-Jamiat disagreements and historical
rivalries between members. It also requires support of Pashtun
leaders and according to reports, Atta Noor has approached
former president Hamid Karzai for support, and the latter
might choose to throw his weight behind a diff erent Pashtun
candidate.
Ashraf Ghani, will attempt to weaken the alliance by
exploiting internal diff erences through political manoeuvring.
Some reports also suggest that he has held talks with Abdul
Rasoul Sayyaf, the leader of the Council for Protection and
Stability in Afghanistan; Hezb-e Islami leader Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar; Deputy CEO Mohammad Mohaqiq; CEO
Abdullah Abdullah; and Hazara Hizb-e Wahdat leader Karim
Khalili to introduce a counter-alliance called ‘The Council
of Elders’.
It is this intense political competition with varying layers
and nuances that will unfold in a war-torn country in the
coming months. As democracy strengthens in Afghanistan, its
political future will be of strategic interest to the international
community.
As of January 2018, 229 districts were under Afghan
government control which is about 56.3 percent of total
Afghan districts, according to a report by the Special
Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR).
After seventeen years of international intervention, Taliban
and ISIS-K have continue to make territorial gains and use
violence as a political tool.
Since it a is a nascent democracy, constitutional and
electoral reforms will continue to evolve. Security sector
reform and anti-corruption measures would be also crucial in
promoting eff ective governance and accountable institutions.
Record-high opium harvest in 2018, fuels the black
economy through money laundering, smuggling, weapons
trade and terrorism and will require immediate attention.
The reconstruction and diversifi cation of the economy will
pose the most signifi cant challenge and opportunity for the
new leadership. The incumbent government also needs to
develop credible institutions which can deliver public goods
eff ectively to gain legitimacy and control across the state.
In 2018 - after a gap of seven years, the US held multiple
rounds of direct talks with the Taliban in Doha to facilitate a
peace process - which may include political recognition and
constitutional amendments for the Taliban. This suggests that
United States is serious about promoting an ‘Afghanistan
owned and led process’ which is crucial for securing long-
term peace. Initiating a smooth political transition during the
presidential election in 2019 will eventually allow the US
to retreat from the country without sacrifi cing its interests.
Similarly, NATO recognises the primacy of a political
solution to the war. It will continue to assist the Afghanistan
government with fi nancial assistance, capacity building and
counsel. Meanwhile, Taliban will continue election-related
violence and will seek to enter the negotiations from a position
of maximum strength.
Pakistan is also investing in a political transition, as it
recently released deputy chief of Afghan Taliban - Mullah
Abdul Ghani and another commander Mullah Abdul Samad
Sani as part of the US negotiations. Ahead of the elections, it
also closed two important border crossings at the request of
the Afghanistan government. As a democratic regional power,
India perceives stability and prosperity as the most potent
solution to its legitimate security interests in Afghanistan.
Negotiations with the Taliban and structural political
reforms will be key in achieving a sustainable peace in
Afghanistan. However parliamentary election gives us one
important insight – they strongly reject Taliban’s extreme
Islamist infl uence and seek security and development for
future generations. The near-completion of the voting
process and inclusion of rudimentary electoral reforms
during heightened violence indicates that limited progress
will continue to take place. This sets a positive tone for
the 2019 presidential election where political actors will
compete to uphold dreams and aspirations of people and
make Afghanistan a stronger nation.
*Shruti Singh is a Defence and Strategic Studies student
at Pune University and follows security trends in the Asia-
Pacifi c.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 10 • Oct-Nov 2018, Noida • 49