IN FOCUS
The security agreements with Indonesia to get access to the
port facilities in the island of Sabang, the northern side of the
Malacca Strait, are also part of the recent developments this
year. However, there are many factors which have to be dealt
for the full realization of the Shangri-La-Dialogue. The ASEAN
solidarity has been a dream of many leaders for a long time.
The Quadrilateral group- Japan, India, Australia and the
United States have an objective of shared prosperity and
peace in the Indo-Pacifi c. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe had initiated it in 2007 but did not get traction because
of Australia’s commitment (to antagonize China) and India’s
silence at that point in time. The idea again took shape in 2017
with the US keen on forging this path ahead. The meeting
of the Quad countries recently on the sideline of the East
Asian Summit in Singapore, with the Trump administration
laying emphasis on the (FOIP) Free and Open Indo-Pacifi c
strategy has opened up a debate across countries. ASEAN’s
role and commitment to partnership with various countries
to promote a rule-based, free and inclusive objective for
the Indo-Pacifi c, is something the US views as an evolving
dialogue. This actually opens up a new Indo-Pacifi c order.
India also shares land borders with China and Pakistan. The
current Sino-Indian relationship had hit an all-time low last
year with the Doklam stand-off . The equation of each country
with China in the Quad group is very diff erent and so are
their national interests. Only, time will tell as to how this
arrangement will pan out keeping in mind the United States
and Japan in their lead to shape the common objective of
the Indo-Pacifi c strategy. Indian foreign policymakers are
analyzing this option as to how India should tread.
The Challenges
The national aff airs of the country do have a huge impact
on the government in power. In a way, every government’s
tenure is depended on the time they have been given by voters
as elected representatives. The tenure of any leadership also
rests on this factor of time which has some measure of impact
on foreign relations. In 2019, India will have the next general
elections. There are a lot of issues that have come to the fore
with many challenges in national and domestic aff airs, taking
storm. However, unlike elections, foreign policy is a lot more
about reality than perception. It is very dynamic in nature.
The tenets of good public policy and governance always
have a good infl uence on the nation apart from strong foreign
relations and trade. There is always a need for a fi ne balance
between foreign policy and national aff airs keeping in mind
the aspect of governance, especially in a country like India
which has too many complexities.
Public opinion is an important factor in any democracy. In
the past, there have been instances of governments falling down
and new leaders taking the centre stage. When this happens,
unforeseen circumstances lead to diff erent decisions which can
indirectly change the route also having an impact on foreign
policy. The leadership can manoeuvre the challenges to the
best possible extent but when a new government is elected, the
decisions can take a diff erent tone altogether. This is common
across most governments in the world.
The Way Forward
The future for India is to have a stronger maritime
neighbourhood and a fi rm security doctrine. There has been a
lot of eff ort from diff erent governments in the past and more
so even this government trying to tackle the existing issues
and new confl icts. India’s neighbours do have an impact on the
geostrategic space, however, geography apart, India needs a
stronger defence budget. China’s defence budget in 2018 was
$175 billion whereas India’s was $45 billion, over three times
India’s measure. The Navy’s role in the space of maritime
security is also dependent on a strong defence budget. India
needs to also work around with Pakistan diplomatically and
more so dealing strategically with an ambitious China. Nepal,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, China and Maldives are new lessons
reminding us of being more tactful and strategic.
India as a civilization has a rich history and culture. We
have made a name for ourselves through soft power. However,
if India needs to face the challenges, it needs to build up on
defence. Instead of having a ‘Macro’ approach to solutions,
there can be a more inclusive perspective by looking at
possible consultations with all stakeholders-the opposition,
the security and defence establishment, academicians, foreign
policy experts and think tanks. In the past, many governments
have functioned this way with an extension of foreign policy
objectives, from a strong conceptual framework to the
practical application of diplomacy. One has to really wait and
observe how things fare well ahead for India, in this turbulent
geopolitical landscape.
References:
https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/as-modi-gears-up-to-
see-abe-again-whats-holding-back-india-japan-ties/
https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-
report-2018
h t t p s : / / w w w. f o r e i g n a f f a i r s . c o m / a r t i c l e s /
india/2018-03-08/modis-foreign-policy-revolution
https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-and-the-quad-
forging-an-innovative-approach-45646
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/
defence/china-boosts-defence-spending-amid-military-
modernisation/articleshow/63165907.cms
* Dr Manavik Raj is a media academician and Journalist
from Bengaluru, India. He is a keen observer of national and
international aff airs. He teaches Contemporary Politics and
Media Laws.
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 10 • Oct-Nov 2018, Noida • 47