INSIDE EUROPE
Though he leans closer to Russia, President Dodick would want to
balance US too – for his own benefi t, as well as for his government.
However, the balancing act has to be far-sighted, and wise too;
otherwise it has capability to burn not only the country but the West
too, including Russia.
as the Russian factor. To add to the slowing down of the
accession processes, the media under the RS, has been anti-
NATO and anti-EU.
President Dodik has also been accused of stoking tensions
in his country by threatening to create an independent Bosnian
Serb state, reviving the old confl ict between the ethnic groups.
How successful his ideas become remains to be seen.
Russia’s Interest
For Russia, the stand taken by RS - to keep the country out
of NATO and EU - is benefi cial. Moscow has never been or
will never be comfortable to have NATO and EU countries in
its neighbourhood. It would not want to lose its infl uence in its
backyard. President Dodik’s closeness with the Kremlin and
his secessionist ideas work for Russia. Though Russia might
not openly support the secessionist ideas of President Dodik
however, the possibility of covert support cannot be ruled
out. Kremlin will support ‘covertly’ till President Dodik does
not gain mass support. Once mass support is there, Moscow
would not hesitate to back the government, the way it does
to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
In addition, RS’s anti-West actions help Russia’s policy
towards strengthening the multipolar world order and
dismantling US’ hegemony. With the anti-West feeling in RS,
Russia also stands secure from the fear of colour revolutions
(if there is any chance of) taking place in this region and
infl uencing the country. For Russia, Bosnia is important from
all the factors—security, political, economic, social as well as
cultural. Most of Russia’s economic footprint in Bosnia and
Herzegovina is concentrated in RS. Russia has consistently
been the largest foreign investor in the RS and the fourth
largest in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The country is completely
dependent on Russian gas supplies. Russian companies also
control the country’s two refi neries, both located in RS.
Culturally and historically too, Russia has strong ties with
the region. Its orthodox Christianity has an infl uence on RS as
on the rest of the Balkans like Serbia etc. A Russian-Serbian
Religious and Cultural Centre was opened in Banja Luka
in the month of September. This center is seen as a strategy
of Russia’s soft power. The center will be dedicated to the
learning of the Russian language as well as studying the Slavic
history, thereby bringing the countries even closer. With these
developments, along with the Trump administration’s interest
in the region, the Balkans (including Bosnia) stand to become
another fi eld of proxy war between Russia and the US.
America’s Interests
The US, along with Europe have their interests in this
region. This can be clearly seen with the accession process
of EU and NATO in the region. However, America is trying
to mark its presence more prominently, which stands to be
both benefi cial and dangerous to the region, including Bosnia.
Recently, the United States entered the energy market as a
prominent exporter, giving competition to Russian monopoly
in the region. America under the Trump administration has
supported Kosovo for a land swap border deal. This deal can
trigger another Kosovo crisis of 1999. For Russia, it will be
an opportunity to intervene. However, the region, including
Bosnia, could be pushed into a crisis.
Hence, Russia and the US must not unleash their vested
16 • Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 10 • Oct-Nov 2018, Noida