Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist March 2019

INSIDE EUROPE referendum, pressure had been mounting on PM May to consider delaying Brexit. It was clear that there was no consensus either on the withdrawal package or on the Irish backstop arrangement. Labour leader Corbyn accused May of delaying the ﬁ nal vote in a “desperate attempt” to push her “deeply ﬂ awed” deal through parliament. On 26th February 2019, May reluctantly offered lawmakers the option of either voting by mid-March ’19 on the withdrawal agreement or delaying Britain’s exit till end June 2019. She noted that EU was ready to approve a short delay in view of Britain’s need to ensure Parliamentary ratification of the agreement. May was forced to concede that “UK will only leave without a deal on 29th March 2019 if there is explicit consent in the House for that outcome”. By now it was clear that despite her protests, her Brexit tactics as pointed out by the Economist (February 2019) was to “run down the clock”. If May waits till late March ’19 for a ﬁ nal vote it would be impossible for EU leaders at Summit level to consider last minute concessions. The EU summit is being held on 21st- 22nd March 2019. The continuing impasse and a looming ‘no deal, disorderly exit’ risks being a trauma for ordinary British citizens as well as for business and travel on both sides of the Channel. The repercussions are already being felt. Jittery Japanese automaker, Nissan, has announced that it was cancelling a major planned investment to build its new X-Trail vehicle at its factory in Sunderland in North-East England. This was in the background of continuing losses for Tata Motors UK unit, the Jaguar Land Rover, which in the quarter ending 31st December 2018 plunged to a consolidated loss of around 3.1 billion pounds. In June 2016, a month before the Brexit referendum, the UK Treasury had forecast: “A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy.” As the Brexit deadline approaches, there are ominous signs that Britain’s decision to quit the world’s largest trading block is beginning to take its toll. Oﬃ cial data published on 11th February 2019 showed that in December ’18 GDP had shrunk by 0.4 percent. The fourth quarter of 2018 showed GDP growth of only 0.2 percent. The Bank of England has now revised the probability of the economy shrinking and going into recession from 13 percent to 22 percent. The ‘Brexit effect’ is particularly clear in industries that trade or are dependent on EU workers such as the engineering and vehicles sector as well as the hotel and restaurant industry. This downslide would impact both the UK and the EU adversely at a time when the euro zone is weak and just coming out of recession. Pankaj Mishra in ‘The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class’ (NYT) notes: “Britain’s rupture with the European Union is proving to be another act of moral dereliction by the country’s rulers. The Brexiteers, pursuing a fantasy of imperial-era strength and self-suﬃ ciency have repeatedly revealed their hubris, mulishness and ineptitude over the past two years. Prime Minister Theresa May has matched their arrogant obduracy, imposing a patently unworkable timetable of two years on Brexit and laying down red lines that undermined negotiations with Brussels and doomed her deal to resoundingly bipartisan rejection in Parliament.” The future looks like a cliﬀ hanger. It would appear that a divorce is now the only option, albeit a messy and chaotic one. May’s wavering brinkmanship appears to be extending the crisis without any solution in sight. The future looks bleak indeed.  The ‘Brexit effect’ is particularly clear in industries that trade or are dependent on EU workers such as the engineering and vehicles sector as well as the hotel and restaurant industry. * The Author joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1976. While she headed the Indian Foreign Ministry’s department specialising in European Union aﬀ airs (1998 to 2004), she piloted institutional initiatives such as annual Indo-EU summits. She writes and speaks about developments in the European Union. She was Ambassador of India to the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013. She was the Permanent Delegate of India to UNESCO from 2004 to 2010. From 1986 to 1989 she worked at India’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations and 6 years as Chief of Staﬀ to the United Nations Human Rights Commissioner. Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 7 • Issue 3 • March 2019, Noida • 47

Diplomatist Magazine Diplomatist March 2019 | Page 47