PERSPECTIVE
Over the last year and a half , Erdogan has managed to cultivate good relations with Russia ’ s Putin , despite being on opposite sides of the Syrian confl ict . However , this has served to undermine Turkey ' s relations with the NATO and European countries
Turkish requirement . Yet , Turkey ’ s neighbourhood is rich in oil and gas , possessing no less than 75 percent of the world ' s proven global reserves .
While Turkey is now emerging as a growing regional energy hub , with pipelines from Russia , Caucasia , the Gulf and other supply sources , its energy-import dependence is unsustainable . Although some investments in nuclear and alternative energy sources are being initiated , what Turkey desperately needs is a massive increase in hydrocarbon exploration on land and Turkish territorial waters .
Will Erdogan rise to the occasion ? It is unlikely , because of foreign policy setbacks . Over the last year and a half , Erdogan has managed to cultivate good relations with Russia ’ s Putin , despite being on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict . However , this has served to undermine Turkey ' s relations with the NATO and European countries . The EU-Turkey relationship has been in deep-freeze over the last few years with the seeming erosion of democracy in the latter through the gradual consolidation of power by Erdogan . After the 2016 coup , relations between the two side worsened . Many in Europe would have been happy to see a successful coup , either because of their sympathy with the Kurdish cause , Erdogan ’ s authoritarian rule or , simply , Erdogan ’ s abrasive style .
In 2015 , the EU faced a major migration crisis . About 1 million refugees flooded into the EU territory via Turkey . In a panicked response , European leaders , notably Germany ’ s Angela Merkel , reached a deal with the then Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu . Erdogan was sidelined during this process . In short order , Davutoglu fell from grace .
The EU deal , however , survived , mainly because Ankara kept its promise . Turkey , now , has become the largest refugeehosting nation in the world , spending more than $ 30 bn from the national budget on its refugee resettlement and integration program . The EU , unfortunately , failed to keep its side of the deal . To date , no visa liberalisation policy for Turkish citizens has been implemented . Nor has there been any progress on Turkey ’ s application for membership of the EU . Further , only a fraction of the € 6 billion pledged to Turkey for hosting refugees has been paid so far .
In the meantime , Erdogan ’ s crackdown on opponents after the coup , limits on press freedom , and his threat to bring back the death penalty , have all served to distance Ankara from Europe . Further , when Western ‘ allies ’ failed to sell arms to the Turkish armed forces or support Erdogan ' s offensive against the Western allied Kurdish YPG forces , Erdogan turned to Russia . In the past few months , Putin and Erdogan have found common ground for cooperation with regard to the situation in Syria as well as with regard to the construction of energy pipelines and a nuclear power plant to secure Turkey ' s energy needs .
Apart from its intervention in the Syrian conflict , the Cyprus conflict is a key Turkish foreign policy challenge . It is about far more than just reaching a settlement between the Turkish- and Greek-Cypriots on the island , based on the UN formula of power-sharing . Defining Turkish , Greek and Cypriot territorial waters and monetising east Mediterranean hydrocarbons has become a major dispute . Whether or not rationality will prevail , only time and geopolitical diplomacy will determine .
For the time being , Erdogan ’ s Turkey remains locked in between a rock and a hard place . Turkish citizens , however , are patient , and it will not be the first time that they will be asked to make a painful sacrifice . Erdogan , it seems , is here to stay . And so , too , his authoritarian policies which are aimed at making Turkey a formidable power in the region , much like it was during its earlier iteration as the Ottoman Empire . In the end , however , Turkish democracy , the greatest legacy of Ataturk , is bound to survive Erdogan . As history shows , the rule of authoritarian leaders is not permanent . •
1
Quo vadis is a Latin phrase which translates to ' where are you going ?' in English .
* The author is a Distinguished Research Professor and Senior Fellow , Modern Turkish Studies , Norman Paterson School of International Affairs , Carleton University , Canada .
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist • Vol 6 • Issue 7 • July 2018 , Noida • 39